2024 Likely to Surpass 2023 as the World’s Hottest Year as June Breaks Heat Records

Global temperatures continue to rise, with June 2024 breaking records as the hottest June ever recorded. This marks the 13th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures, despite the development of La Niña conditions, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The average global surface air temperature has remained 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for 12 successive months, reaching 16.66°C in June 2024—0.14°C higher than the previous record set in June 2023. Additionally, the sea surface temperature (SST) for June 2024 also reached a record at 20.85 °C, marking the 15th consecutive month with the highest SST recorded in the ERA5 dataset.

Will 2024 surpass 2023 as the hottest year recorded?

Since June 2023, the global average temperature has been 1.64 °C higher than the pre-industrial average, according to data by ERA5, suggesting that 2024 might surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record. Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S, called this more than a statistical oddity, further adding that it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate.

Scientists attribute the rise in global temperature to the combined effects of human-induced climate change and the natural warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, both of which have driven temperatures to unprecedented levels this year.

In Europe, temperatures were notably above average in the southeastern regions and Türkiye. Beyond Europe, significantly higher temperatures were observed in eastern Canada, the western United States, Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica. 

The 2023–24 El Niño event significantly contributed to the high SSTs, although SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific decreased, indicating a transition to La Niña conditions. 

What does this mean for India?

India faced one of its most extreme and prolonged heat waves, with over 40,000 suspected heat stroke cases and at least 100 heat-related deaths reported. According to the India Meteorological Department, June was the hottest on record for northwest India, with deadly heat waves affecting Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and other regions of northwest India. The severe heat put immense pressure on the water supply system and power grids, causing a significant water crisis in Delhi.

11 states experienced between 20 and 38 heatwave days during the period from April to June, up to four times the normal amount, according to IMD. In parts of Rajasthan, temperatures soared past 50 degrees Celsius, with nighttime temperatures remaining around 35 degrees Celsius in several regions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that overshooting the 1.5°C warming threshold could lead to irreversible impacts. Experts warn that India will face more severe weather events if these trends persist.

What do the experts say?

Former Earth Sciences Secretary M. Rajeevan highlighted that global warming will continue to cause extreme weather events despite the cooling effect of La Niña. Recent heavy rains in Delhi and Mumbai exemplify the unpredictable nature of these events. Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll stressed the need for improved monitoring and predictive models to manage the increasing frequency of extreme weather, suggesting the use of high-resolution models and AI-based support systems for better forecasting.

Buontempo stated that while the current streak of extreme weather may end at some point, we are sure to witness new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. He emphasised that it is inevitable unless we stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and oceans.