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Alliances and partnerships are continuously examined and analyzed in the dynamic world of international politics. Russia’s expanding ties with Afghanistan is one such collaboration that has attracted a lot of attention recently. It is crucial to determine whether these links represent real substance or are purely symbolic gestures in today’s complicated world order as the globe observes a shifting geopolitical landscape and the aftermath of the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The historical context of its relationship with Afghanistan is crucial. The Soviet Union’s invasion in 1979 led to a tumultuous period, with the Afghan Mujahideen resisting the occupation. This conflict ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. Since then, it has been cautious, but post-US withdrawal, it has increased its engagement in Afghanistan, raising questions about its genuine strategic interests or symbolic nature.
Change in Russia’s view
As the Taliban drew in on Kabul in August 2021, Western diplomats scrambled to close embassies and evacuate. However, the Russian mission remained open, and its Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov became the first foreign official to meet with Taliban representatives just two days after the takeover. Following the incident, Zhirnov referred to the Taliban militants as “reasonable guys,” and the Taliban began providing security for the Russian embassy.
The Kremlin has repeatedly supported the Taliban’s vehement anti-Western rhetoric. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova publicly gloated about NATO’s failure in Afghanistan in August 2021, stating that the coalition should have spent less time practicing for a fight with Russia and more time focused on its operations there.
Historically, the Soviet Union was instrumental in the development of Afghanistan’s infrastructure, which included industry, irrigation facilities, bridges, airports, and roadways. The impact of this support can still be seen today in the form of Soviet-made cars and military equipment, as well as the older population in Afghanistan frequently speaking Russian. However, the former clout has dwindled.
Moscow’s influence in today’s Afghanistan
Russia has recently shown interest in contributing to the economic growth of Afghanistan. This includes infrastructure developments that can improve regional connectivity, such as railroads and energy infrastructure. However, these investments breadth and scale are rather modest when compared to those of other significant global players.
In the year ending March 20, 2023, only 4% ($289 million) of Afghanistan’s imports came from Russia, according to the nation’s National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA). Iran (20%), China (18%), and Pakistan (16%) are at the top. Projects like the Trans-Afghan Railway connecting Uzbekistan and Pakistan and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline have languished mostly due to security concerns.
Diasporically, Russia is now only a fallback for young Afghans who wish to travel to the United States. The reason being the closure of the Russian embassy’s consular section for Afghans and difficulty in obtaining state visas. Second, many Afghans now perceive it as a dangerous place where drones frequently target the city. Third, past cultural levers have been lost; nobody seems to desire to create large-scale Russian educational or cultural activities, such as language instruction in Afghanistan.
Efforts to resolve the issues
There is no doubt that the Taliban want to work with Moscow more. They demand a strategy to elevate bilateral ties and the relaxation of visa requirements at each meeting with Kremlin authorities. It is still a useful ally, after all.
Moscow is nevertheless concerned about terrorism. On September 5, 2022, a suicide bomber detonated himself outside the Russian embassy in Kabul, killing two diplomats from Russia. This was Russia’s first-hand experience of violence in Afghanistan.
The Taliban deny that there is an issue with terrorism and disregard Russia’s security worries. According to the Global Terrorism Index, Afghanistan is still the most dangerous country in the world for terrorism.
In one way or another, symbolism plays a vital role in strengthening ties with Kabul for the Kremlin. Given its economic isolation from the West, Moscow does not have several options to nurture trade ties. That demonstrates how the Kremlin values cooperation with Afghanistan. It’s also a means for Russia’s leaders to comfort themselves that they’re not alone in their anti-Western sentiments.
