In a high-stakes maneuver, U.S. President Joe Biden hinted that Iran might yet stand down from its expected retaliation against Israel if a cease-fire between the Jewish state and Hamas is brokered in the next few days. As diplomatic initiatives reach a fever pitch to end the 10-month Gaza conflict, which has seen tens of thousands killed and almost the entire enclave displaced, the region stands on the brink of wider war.
Tensions are running high following the successive assassinations of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, reportedly by Israeli forces. Enraged, Iran has threatened revenge—a development that threatens to suck many actors in the Middle East theater into a wider regional conflict.
Ceasefire Talks: The Last Hope?
Biden’s comments, in a brief session with reporters in New Orleans, marked the critical role of diplomatic means in forestalling a broader conflict. The US, through relentless efforts together with Egypt and Qatar, has been trying to get Hamas and Israel onto the negotiating table for ceasefire talks later this week in Doha or Cairo. For many, these talks represent the last, best hope for a ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and the avoidance of an Iranian counter strike that could embroil the region in war.
But the road to peace is rocky. Hamas has viewed Israeli intentions with much skepticism, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of dragging out negotiations on purpose. The Israeli side is divided over what it would accept in a deal, and Netanyahu apparently faces pressure to expand the mandate of his negotiation team to include more concessions—a move he hasn’t made yet.
Strategic Calculations by Iran
Of course, in these developments, one indeterminate variable is Iran’s response. Reports by Reuters, quoting sources, say that Iranian officials hinted they might hold off the promised retaliation if the ceasefire talks are positive. That would seem to be an extremely careful line of restraint that Tehran is treading—full-scale conflict between them and Israel could lead to devastating consequences in the region.
But Iran’s patience is not infinite. The same sources said that should the talks fail or should Israel be seen as dragging out the process, Tehran and its proxies – which include Hezbollah – would attack. It is not clear how long such a decision would take, but the threat hangs over the diplomatic process.
The U.S., on its part, has answered the threat with more augmentation of its military presence in the region, including a number of warships and fighter jets, in the Eastern Mediterranean. White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk will be sent to Cairo and Doha to oversee the talks, while special envoy Amos Hochstein visits Lebanon, the high stakes around the coming discussions.
Role of Hezbollah and Regional Implications
These negotiations also have far-reaching implications. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, has already fired a few small-scale rocket attacks at northern Israel in the past few days, making clear just how volatile things are. Any misstep in the ceasefire talks could spiral into a broader conflict very fast, bringing in multiple actors from across the region.
For its part, Israel is still on high alert. The Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, started from the Israeli side that the monitoring of developments in both Tehran and Beirut by the Israeli Defense Forces was ready to respond to any challenge. How the country is preparing for the worst-case scenario is underscored by a recent decision by the Israeli government to push forward with a deal worth $20 billion in arms with the U.S.—including the purchase of advanced fighter jets and missiles.
Risks of Escalation Loom
As the ceasefire talks come closer, the area actually enters a crossroads. Success in negotiations may avoid a wider conflict; failure will result in dangerous escalation. Now it’s all upon the United States and how it steers diplomatic efforts during the world’s wait for Thursday’s outcome of the talks.
