The rise of the Indo-Pacific construct is coupled with the intensification of power competitions on the one hand and increasing levels of economic connectivity on the other. Such tumultuous dynamics have compelled middle and small powers of the region to strive harder to gain more agency and political autonomy. Among the regional players, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is at the heart of this strategic dilemma.
The primary catalyst for ASEAN’s creation in 1967 was not integration, but rather ensuring the survival and resilience of its members amidst the exacerbating power dynamics of the Cold War and the spread of communism throughout Southeast Asia. However, with the dissolution of the erstwhile Soviet Union and the expansion of membership within ASEAN, the turn of the century witnessed how the bloc sought to leverage its experience in community-building to serve as an institutional anchor throughout Asia by promoting ASEAN-centric norms of consensus decision-making, informal diplomacy, non-interference, respect for sovereignty, and the preservation of the bloc’s centrality. Thus, the expansion of ASEAN-led mechanisms and the growing adherence of major powers towards the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) provided a much-needed structure for countries with diverse interests to cooperate at a time when distrust was prevalent among emerging powers.
ASEAN faces a myriad of challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, encompassing both internal and external factors that shape its strategic landscape. These challenges pose significant hurdles to ASEAN’s efforts to maintain regional stability, foster cooperation, and uphold its centrality in the evolving geopolitical environment. Key Challenges Facing ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific:
Shifting Balance of Power: The changing power dynamics in the Asia Pacific region, particularly the rivalry between major powers like China and the United States, present ASEAN with the challenge of navigating complex geopolitical relationships while safeguarding its autonomy
Territorial Conflicts: Intra-ASEAN territorial disputes and the unresolved territorial conflicts in the South China Sea pose persistent challenges to regional stability and cohesion Military Modernizations: The ongoing programs of military modernization by ASEAN member states raise concerns about the potential for an intra-ASEAN arms race, which could escalate tensions and undermine security cooperation within the region
Domestic Political Change: Demands for domestic political change within ASEAN member states contribute to uncertainty and internal strife, impacting regional dynamics and cooperation
Transnational Security Threats: Non-traditional security threats, such as terrorism, climate change, and pandemics, pose significant risks to ASEAN’s security architecture and require enhanced cooperation and preparedness among member states
Geopolitical Rivalry: ASEAN grapples with managing external pressures from global issues like heightened U.S.-China tensions, uncertainties around globalization, and regional conflicts such as the Myanmar civil war and South China Sea tensions
Unity and Consensus: Disunity among ASEAN members weakens the group’s credibility in leading regional cooperation efforts, while varying interpretations of political-security issues hinder policy consistency and institutional effectiveness
Security Dilemma: The risk of a security dilemma emerging within ASEAN due to concerns about security alliances among member states could lead to increased military capabilities and potential arms races, impacting regional stability
Escalating Chinese assertiveness: Navigating geopolitical challenges Of late, the foundation of these ASEAN-led mechanisms has come under strain due to the competitive nature of contemporary Indo-Pacific geopolitics. While several structural factors encompass Indo-Pacific security, the unfolding power competition between the United States (US) and China has the most immediate impact on ASEAN member countries. Southeast Asia is geographically located at the intersection of the traditional sphere of US influence and the emerging locus of Chinese power. Since 2008, China has been increasing its provocations against the security architecture of Southeast Asia through its expansionist interests in the South China Sea. It continues to assertively alter the balance of power and geography of the disputed maritime territory to its favour, at the expense of the sovereignty and sovereign rights of its less powerful neighbours, thus directly challenging the stability of the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. This has inevitably catalysed a US response to check Beijing’s growing belligerence and expansionist regional interests. Along with this response is the proliferation of security arrangements amongst like-minded democracies, such as the Quad and the AUKUS—Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), and the US trilateral—to preserve and secure the established regional order. However, this has resulted in a more acute focus on Southeast Asia, making it a hotspot for a potential shooting war within the greater Indo-Pacific.
This creates two problems for ASEAN. First, the preservation of autonomy and sovereignty amidst external power fluctuations is at the heart of ASEAN’s external outlook. Amidst a highly competitive strategic environment brought about by the exacerbating US-China power competition in Southeast Asia, ASEAN countries face a growing challenge when it comes to pursuing their economic and security interests while also ensuring their survival and political autonomy. It is also important to note how ASEAN comprises dynamic countries with varied threat perceptions, interests, and sensitivities, resulting in varied reactions to the unfolding power competition. While the presence of the US as a potential balance to Chinese dominance in the region is welcomed, the majority of Southeast Asian countries remain cautious of aligning too deeply with Washington given their wariness of the US’s “value-based” foreign policy, its historic inconsistency as a security provider, and the perils of the US being geographically distant.
Southeast Asia is geographically located at the intersection of the traditional sphere of US influence and the emerging locus of Chinese power.
Moreover, while Washington’s military pre-eminence in the region is undeniable, China has been able to deepen its influence through its growing economic activities in Southeast Asia. Since 2009, China has cemented its role as ASEAN’s top trading partner. Moreover, Beijing is Cambodia and Laos’s leading source of development assistance, while Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest beneficiary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Furthermore, since the 2021 coup in Myanmar, China has been taking advantage of the domestic unrest in the Southeast Asian country to further its interests and strengthen its influence given the former’s geostrategic relevance in the region.
Therefore, while Beijing presents a challenge to the stability of Southeast Asia, ASEAN countries refrain from overtly taking sides against it to avoid having their actions misconstrued in a way that resembles bloc politics, which can have several consequences given China’s advantageous geographical proximity and its notorious record of using economic coercion and the conducting of grey-zone activities in the South China Sea. Even for countries like Vietnam and most recently the Philippines, which have been quite vocal about their opposition to Chinese unilateralism in the disputed maritime territory, prudent steps are still being taken by Hanoi and Manila in maintaining a defensive position vis-à-vis the US-China power competition.
Diminishing credibility of ASEAN: Challenges in regional leadership and unity As ASEAN countries strive to maintain political autonomy and ensure survival amidst the intensifying US-China power competition, it would be vital for them to incorporate the strategy of denial more effectively, which entails preventing immediate great power/s from attaining monopoly over regional affairs by forging close ties with other major powers to act as a strategic buffer. This will require a serious foreign policy reorientation amongst Southeast Asian countries, by prioritising partner diversification and leveraging ties with emerging powers that identify themselves as independent forces rather than shadows of the US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific
