Bolivia is experiencing intense political turmoil as the rivalry between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales escalates. Recently, an armed group reportedly linked to Morales seized a military post near Cochabamba, holding over 200 soldiers hostage and seizing weapons. The standoff follows accusations of an assassination attempt against Morales, which he claims was orchestrated by the government—a charge Arce denies, citing conflicting reports from law enforcement. Amid legal investigations and widespread blockades led by Morales’ supporters, the two factions are locked in a struggle for control over the ruling MAS party, fueling fears of prolonged instability as the 2025 elections approach.
Hostage Crisis and the Armed Takeover
On a recent Friday, an “irregular armed group” seized a military base near Cochabamba, a central Bolivian city and a stronghold of Morales’ supporters. This group, reportedly connected to Morales, held more than 200 military personnel hostage, according to the Bolivian Foreign Ministry. The military confirmed that weapons and ammunition were seized during the incident, and the armed forces have since issued a statement urging the group to withdraw peacefully, labeling their actions “treasonous.”
While Morales has denied direct involvement, President Arce has publicly alleged that the armed group is “affiliated” with the former president. The event highlights the extent to which political factionalism has escalated in Bolivia, where armed confrontations and blockades are fast becoming a new norm.
Morales’ allies have, for nearly three weeks, organized road blockades across Bolivia, specifically targeting areas around Cochabamba, a hotbed of political activity and a region of significant coca cultivation. The blockades have contributed to food and fuel shortages, with some areas of the country beginning to feel the economic strain of prolonged disruptions.
Allegations of an Assassination Attempt
Prior to the hostage crisis, Morales shared video evidence of what he called an assassination attempt, with his vehicle riddled with bullet holes in the Cochabamba region. In response, government officials, including Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo, offered a different narrative. Del Castillo alleged that Morales’ convoy was intercepted as part of an anti-narcotics patrol, and in an ensuing exchange, members of Morales’ security detail fired on the police and ran over an officer.
Morales disputes this account, stating that his convoy was targeted by “men in black” who he claims fired over 18 rounds at his vehicle. The former president has accused the government of not only endangering his life but of intentionally inciting violence to undermine his political standing.
Screenshot of a video showing reflection of former President Evo Morales in bullet-shattered truck window [Photo: Evo Morales]
Political and Legal Entanglements
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing legal issues facing Morales. He is currently under investigation for alleged statutory rape and human trafficking—charges he firmly denies and describes as politically motivated. These accusations have led to mounting frustration among Morales’ base, who claim that the legal proceedings are part of a broader strategy to eliminate him from the political arena.
Morales and Arce have repeatedly clashed, with Morales’ faction of the MAS party accusing the government of betrayal and abandoning the indigenous movement. Morales likened his experience to that of former Ecuadorian President Lenín Moreno, claiming Arce has veered from MAS principles and policies. Arce’s government, on the other hand, has portrayed Morales as an instigator of unrest, accusing him of exploiting the country’s volatile situation to destabilize the current administration.
Bolivia’s History of Political Strife and Current Unrest
This recent crisis reflects Bolivia’s challenging political history. Morales, who served as president from 2006 to 2019, was forced to resign after widespread protests broke out following contested election results. Allegations of electoral fraud resulted in intense civil unrest, leading to Morales’ self-imposed exile. His eventual return to Bolivia marked a period of cautious reconciliation, with Arce, his former ally, taking office in 2020. However, Morales has continued to hold significant sway over the MAS party’s most dedicated supporters, leading to periodic confrontations with Arce’s government.
In recent years, Bolivia’s political landscape has been characterized by its fragmentation. Both Morales and Arce command powerful factions, each with a considerable capacity for mobilization. While Arce’s faction seeks to present itself as a stabilizing force, Morales’ followers view him as a true advocate for indigenous rights and leftist reforms. As the 2025 presidential election approaches, both leaders are locked in a fierce competition to control MAS’s base.
A Call for Dialogue Amid Rising Tensions
While the crisis has shaken Bolivia, both Morales and Arce have intermittently called for dialogue, albeit under sharply contrasting terms. Arce has urged Morales to work within established channels, emphasizing the importance of maintaining peace. Conversely, Morales has accused Arce of exacerbating tensions and has refused to step down from his stance, asserting that his faction’s actions are aimed at preserving the MAS party’s original values.
In response to the latest crisis, Morales’ supporters have demanded the government cease interference with their blockades, which they claim are a legitimate protest against the alleged persecution of their leader. The blockade strategy has exacerbated the economic toll on Bolivia, particularly in urban areas facing shortages. The government has responded with measured restraint, but the hostilities surrounding Morales’ convoy and the recent hostage crisis have stoked fears that the situation could spiral into broader violence.
Implications for Bolivia’s Future
The escalating confrontation between Morales and Arce underscores the political volatility in Bolivia, where historical grievances and entrenched divisions within the ruling party risk destabilizing the nation. As both leaders contend for MAS’s nomination, their power struggle could not only shape the party’s trajectory but also deepen divisions among Bolivia’s indigenous communities, coca growers, and rural populations. The coming months are likely to test Bolivia’s resilience and the government’s ability to address both Morales’ challenge and the broader issues of economic stability and social cohesion. With international eyes turned toward Bolivia, how this situation unfolds will have significant implications for the country’s democratic future and the preservation of peace.
