China announced its plan to build a massive bridge across the Brahmaputra, called Yarlung Tsangpo, in China’s Tibet autonomous region. India and Bangladesh have expressed concerns over regional influence, balanced development, cooperation in shared ecosystems, and water-sharing uncertainty downstream of India and Bangladesh.
Significantly for India, this river becomes Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, which joins Brahmaputra in India, the lifeline of people in the northeast region.
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Ground Situation in China
Beijing yesterday approved the massive hydropower project. It is supposed to surpass the Three Georges Dam, the largest hydroelectric dam in the world. The dam across is estimated to cost over USD 137 billion.
Challenges to China
This dam is planned in a seismically active location, posing significant engineering challenges. It is estimated that 20 km-long tunnels will be needed through Namcha Barwa mountain.
It is feared that it will displace local Tibetan communities. The Three Gorges Dam displaced around 1.4 million people and several archaeological sites.
Other challenges include:
Disruption of the ecosystem.
Brahmaputra is the lifeline of millions in multiple countries, providing drinking water and irrigation. The dam could disrupt the aquatic ecosystem and biodiversity in the region.
Risks due to seismic activity
The region is seismically active, and infrastructure may risk catastrophic failure during earthquakes, which could lead to massive flooding downstream.
Soil fertility issues
Sediment trapping due to the dam will stop replenishing soil downstream. This could eventually lead to reduced soil fertility in the basin. This could affect agriculture in India and Bangladesh.
Water flow alteration
Naturally flowing rivers are affected by dam construction, which could lead to water scarcity downstream in India and Bangladesh.
Global Impact
India and Bangladesh have expressed their serious concerns over this massive project. It will definitely impact the people of these countries and the region’s politics.
Globally, this project reflects China’s way of expressing its regional power. Its approach to leverage infrastructure projects for regional influence and further control over Tibet is carefully watched internationally. The impact on downstream locations can be listed as follows:
Water dependence and control
Besides generating hydroelectricity, this dam affects the flow of the Brahmaputra, a lifeline river in the northeast (Arunachal Pradesh). China can potentially manipulate these waters and exacerbate the already tense situation in Arunachal Pradesh.
Agriculture and livelihoods were affected.
India and Bangladesh rely heavily on Brahmaputra’s waters for agriculture and livelihood. Altering this natural flow could lead to diplomatic tensions over these issues.
Political power to China
Due to control over these transboundary rivers, China can consolidate its dominance in this region, especially over Tibet.
No water-sharing agreements
Equitable resource sharing gets disrupted if China restricts water flow via the dam. There is no water-sharing treaty between India, Bangladesh, and China; this is a concern that the two countries have expressed.
Conclusion
Given the strategic rivalry between India and China, tension is exacerbated, but to go ahead with this massive project. India and Bangladesh have already called for transparency and multilateral agreements to mitigate the risks.
Historically, China has resisted multilateral water-sharing treaties; it is not part of the UN Watercourses Convention governing transboundary rivers. However, it may agree partially due to the following concerns:
- For regional stability and trade relations.
- China is pitted as the next superpower and would want to maintain a good global image.
- Climate change could compel China to cooperate.
- Being a seismic-risk region, it would want a collaborative mitigation plan.
