The recent 2+2 dialogues that China held with South Korea and Indonesia reflect a strategic readjustment in its diplomatic approach toward the Indo-Pacific. Featuring ministerial-level talks between senior officials at the foreign and defense ministries, such talks present a more comprehensive diplomatic strategy as Beijing seeks to offset the challenge brought about by the rising influence of the Quad alliance. More than anything else, this exemplifies China’s bid to interlace defense and foreign policy much more intimately into its regional engagements in a heightened game of polemic politics in Asia.
The 2+2 Format: A Strategic Evolution
The format of the 2+2 dialogue, although it is part of the standard diplomatic playbook for a major power like the United States, is relatively new for China. Beijing has used this format informally in the past; the formal dialogues that were held with South Korea and Indonesia are hence quite a shift. These talks underpin China’s shifting approach to binding regional influence through the intertwining of military and diplomatic efforts.
Context and Background:
- South Korea engagement: In June, China hosted the first ever formal 2+2 dialogue with South Korea, a country doing everything to integrate itself with the Quad powers. Participating in these talks were China’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong and South Korea’s Vice-Minister Kim Hong-kyun. The impetus for the above engagement was an enhanced mechanism put in place in 2020 geared toward mutual trust and cooperation between both nations.
- The latest 2+2 dialogue with Indonesia, held in Jakarta, was led by senior officials: Abdul Kadir Jailani and Oktaheroe Ramsi on the Indonesian side, and Sun Weidong and Zhang Baoqun from the Chinese side. In the light of Indonesia’s strategic position and its coming presidential transition, the dialogue had a great deal of importance.
Analyzing China’s Diplomatic Intentions
A Response to the Quad’s Rising Influence: To Dylan Loh, assistant professor of foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, China’s adopting this format on the other side of the bill is less revolutionary and more an evolution in the way Beijing feels about contemporary geopolitics, which only serves to marry further two historically intertwined issues—defense and foreign policy. The 2+2 meetings would thus be more than just an exercise in bilateral cooperation but are strategic moves to offset the growing influence of the Quad, which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.
Integrating the Military and Diplomatic Blueprint: David Arase, resident professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre, argues that the 2+2 meetings are only a part of the overall strategy to be adopted by China. Through emerging military capabilities, China would have political and military orientations of key powers in the region like South Korea and Indonesia to get in line with their vision on formation of a regional order with China at its center. This strategic engagement allows China to comprehend better the geopolitical thinking of its neighbors and their relations with third parties, specifically the Quad nations.
Strategic Implications for South Korea and Indonesia
Of course, South Korea’s cautious overtures toward the Quad powers have not gone unseen in Beijing. The 2+2 dialogue provides a channel to China for its ongoing influence in Seoul’s strategic decisions. In the face of rising regional presence of the Quad, these diplomatic overtures of China are intended to ensure South Korea’s abstinence from full alignment with it, hence delicately maintaining the balance of regional power dynamics.
The timing for the 2+2 dialogue could not have been more opportune for Indonesia. With presidential elections at its threshold, there is an innate desire in Jakarta to ensure continuity in its foreign policy—what the dialogue with China did by firmly reiterating the strategic partnership between the two countries against the backdrop of the South China Sea dispute dynamics. While Indonesia is not a claimant, its EEZ overlaps with China’s nine-dash line, so it is quite a key player in relation to the region’s maritime security.
Challenges and Criticisms: China’s Smaller Neighbors
All of China’s smaller neighbors, particularly the countries that involve it in sovereignty disputes, are very skeptical about this 2+2 dialogue format. They view the channel as one to be used by China in order to get concessions, not as any real thrust toward mutual trust and cooperation. According to Arase, for these nations, the 2+2 format might further leverage China’s coercive diplomacy, potentially undermining regional stability.
The Bigger Picture: Reasserting Regional Dominance
The rise of the Quad, along with tightening strategic relationships between its members and other regional players, has been rapidly interlocking a web of strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific. China’s 2+2 dialogues with South Korea and Indonesia are part of a larger attempt to recapture the regional narrative. It is in this regard that Beijing will, at the highest levels of strategic talks, try to engage these countries in order to offset the effect of the Quad on its own action plan and reestablish itself as a dominant force within Asia.
The format 2+2 allows China the platform to merge its military and diplomatic efforts, but it is yet dubious whether it will be successful. After all, the dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region are changing day by day, and, with the increasingly multi-polar world, China’s neighbors weigh options. It is in this complexity of relationships that China will maintain stability in a region of rising tensions and need to be effective in its strategy.
