China Could Captivate Taiwan Without Invading: Warns US Think Tank Report 2024

It’s been a long since China claimed self-ruled democratic Taiwan as an integral part of Chinese territory. The ultimate fear was that China could captivate Taiwan’s territory and this tension reconsilate when Bejing said that ‘diehard’ advocates of Taiwan’s independence could face the death penalty. Just a day after this statement, Taiwan’s defense ministry announced on June 22 that it had detected 41 Chinese military aircraft. 32 aircraft had entered the air defense identification zone (ADIZ) of the self-ruled island.

A US think tank named the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS ) recently warned, that China could have isolated Taiwan, crippled its economy, and captivated through its ‘grey’ zone tactics. For these, China didn’t even invest in one fireshot to Taiwan. This strategy could cut off Taiwan from essential supplies like energy and access to ports. The report is based on in-depth research, tabletop exercises, private consultations, and expert surveys, according to the CSIS.

What’s the Quarantine strategy to Captivate China?

The quarantine strategy includes deploying a blockade-like net around Taiwan to make it surrender to Beijing’s terms. While a blockade would involve the regular military, the quarantine strategy would include law-enforcement elements of Beijing’s security apparatus. Beijing’s quarantine strategy would include an operation to control maritime or air traffic around Taiwan, according to CSIS.

Instead of completely sealing off Taiwan, the quarantine’s objective would be to assert Beijing’s captivate over Taiwan by setting the terms for traffic in and out of the island, as per the report. It would mean that China would decide how, when, and on what terms countries and companies could access Taiwan and how, when, and on what terms Taiwan would have access to the outside world. CNN reported that the China Coast Guard, Chinese maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies could be part of such an operation.

Quarantine Could Put Taiwan’s Partners in a Tough Spot

As the quarantine strategy would be a law-enforcement operation in the seas, if the US Navy or other partners intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, they would be considered the aggressors and Beijing would then put the onus of any escalation on them.

Moreover, the objective of the quarantine is to dictate the terms of Taiwan’s engagement with the outside world and the outside world’s engagement with China. The threat of having ships seized by China could deter maritime trade with Taiwan and hit the country’s economy.

For example, if the quarantine targets just the port of Kaohsiung, up to 57 percent of the country’s trade could be affected, according to CNN.

Such pressure on the economy, and possible imposition of requirements like the customs checks of ships by Chinese inspectors in Taiwan to captivate, could make Taiwan as well as the wider world bow to China’s pressure, and it would captivate Taiwan easily, suggests the report.

Plausible, but still fraught with risk for China to Captivate

Outside analysts reviewed the CSIS report and found it plausible. But they also harbored important doubts about how things might play out. Some mentioned how the economics don’t necessarily play in Beijing’s favor.

“Maintaining the quarantine will be expensive and time-consuming,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.“Taipei won’t give up in under 60 days,” Schuster contends. “Can Beijing sustain the effort and possible international reaction for that long?”

Efforts to upset the status quo across the Taiwan Strait could further erode Beijing’s foreign trade, the experts warn. Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College in London, notes the challenges the Chinese Communist Party is already facing with an economy still struggling to recover from Covid-19 isolation that has seen growth rates plummet and new trade restrictions, like tariffs on its electric vehicle exports.

Taiwan is a prominent industrialized economy, a crucial node in global supply chains, and a manufacturer of the vast majority of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. A quarantine on the island would have economic repercussions not just domestically, but globally.

While most nations diplomatically recognize Beijing over Taiwan, the island has forged increasingly strong unofficial relations with major Western democracies, deepening those ties in recent years as Beijing’s threats have hardened.