China Hints at a ‘Forceful’ Stop to Taiwan Independence

Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun has once again iterated China’s aggressive military intentions to unify China by curbing Taiwan’s independence. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue Conference at Singapore, he said that “the People’s Liberation Army has been an indestructible and powerful force in the unification of the motherland, and it will act resolutely and forcefully at all times to curb the Independence of Taiwan…” He also added that “whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be crushed to  pieces and suffer his own destruction.” This statement comes in the backdrop of tense relations between the two neighbors and has significant implications on the larger geopolitical landscape. 

Background on China Taiwan Relations

China has always perceived Taiwan to be a breakaway province that is bound to be reunited with the Chinese Mainland whereas Taiwan has strived to maintain its identity as a democratic and constitutional republic over the years. 

Taiwan was first occupied by a Chinese empire in the 17th century, following which it became a Japanese colony in 1895. After Japan’s defeat in the second world war, the Chinese regained control with Chiang Kai-shek now in power. In the midst of the decades long conflict between Chiang’s forces and Mao Zedong’s Communist Party, when the communists won in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang (KMT) fled to Taiwan. They established the Republic of China and ruled there for several decades. The Chinese specifically refer to this point in history to claim control over Taiwan but the Taiwanese argue that they were never a part of the People’s Republic of China formed by Mao after 1949.

The Republic of China initially held China’s seat on the UNSC and was recognised by the Western world as the only Chinese government. However gradually disagreements over this status began to emerge. In 1971 the UN switched its diplomatic recognition to Beijing, leading to an intensity in the conflict. In 1979 the US formally established ties with the People’s Republic of China.

Today due to increasing Chinese influence, only 12 countries officially recognize Taiwan. Moreover, even though the US does not officially recognize the country, it continues to remain Taiwan’s strongest ally, pledging support in case of war and supplying ammunition. According to ROC’s official website, it has full membership in 45 intergovernmental institutions and its subsidiary bodies. 

Key Events in China Taiwan Relations

Taiwan relaxed travel and investment rules in China as relations began to improve in the 1980s. Going as far as to declare that the war with China was over in 1991. Subsequently China proposed the ‘one country, two systems’ option which would allow Taiwan autonomy whilst being a part of the mainland. Taiwan however rejected the offer which led to the PRC declaring the Taiwanese government as ‘illegitimate’, a stance it continues to maintain even today. Over the following years as political representatives supporting independence began to govern Taiwan, China began to undertake aggressive measures. It passed the ‘anti–secession law’ and branded Taiwanese leaders as separatists. When Xi Xinping came to power, he asserted that China would be reunified with Taiwan and set 2049 as the target date for achieving the goal. Recently, China has also been conducting military drills around Taiwan simulating a full scale attack.

Political and Economic Implications

The Political and Economic implications of this conflict are multifaceted and deep-rooted. For the PRC, Taiwan represents a question of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It seeks reunification to complete the territory of China. Taiwan on the other hand wants to maintain its democratic institutions and its distinct Taiwanese identity.  The conflict also involves the dynamics of regional security and stability with China and the US supporting opposite causes. China asserts its dominance in the Asia-Pacific region and aims to deter other countries from recognizing Taiwan.  The US on the other hand seeks to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait which is essential for regional security. It also aims to counter China’s increasing influence in the region.

The economic implications of an impending military conflict are also multifarious. Taiwan is home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest and most advanced semiconductor manufacturer. Any disruption in this sector would severely impact electronic and technology industries across the world. Moreover the Taiwan Strait is a critical maritime passage for global trade. Any conflict could disrupt shipping lanes.  

The potential for military conflict thus carries significant risks for both Taiwan and China, as well as for the larger international community, necessitating careful diplomatic and strategic management to prevent escalation and maintain stability.