China has triple the number of warheads that India possesses and is adding more to its nuclear arsenal faster than any other nation in the world. It also places some of these weapons on high operational status on its ballistic missiles.
In terms of nuclear warheads, Pakistan continues to hold a roughly equal standing with India, while the US and Russia remain far ahead of the rest, holding over ninety percent of all nuclear arsenals.
India’s stockpile
According to the most recent estimate from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI), which was published on Monday, China has over 500 warheads, compared to 410 in January 2023, while India has 172 (up from 164 in 2023) and Pakistan has 170 (unchanged from 2023). However, the Indian defense establishment continues to feel confident in its strategic deterrence capability, which is about to gain some more strength after the multiple-warhead test of the already-introduced Agni-5 ballistic missile, which has a range of over 5,000 kilometers, was conducted on March 11 of this year.
Furthermore, India is purchasing a growing number of canister launch missiles, which come mated with the missile, in order to ensure that it has the operational capability and mobility needed to be stored for extended periods of time, transported quickly by rail or road, and fired when needed.
The Swedish think tank added that North Korea, India, and Pakistan were putting several warheads on ballistic missiles, just like the US and Russia had done. China, according to Hans Kristensen of SIPRI, is building up its nuclear arsenal at a rate that surpasses that of any other nation.
In the next months, India plans to commission INS Arighat, its second nuclear-propelled submarine equipped with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, officially strengthening the weakest leg of the nuclear triad. In 2018, INS Arihant, started to operate.
According to SIPRI, the continued geopolitical unrest surrounding conflicts such as the ones involving Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine has increased the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons. According to the report, all nine nuclear-armed governments are still expanding their arsenals, and several introducing new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable missile systems in 2023.
Nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—kept updating their nuclear arsenals, and some of them even installed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023, according to SIPRI. As of January 2024, the global inventory of warheads was projected to be 12,121. Of those, 9,585 were in military stocks for potential use, 3,904 had been utilised with missiles and planes (60 more than in January 2023), and the rest missiles were in central storage.
China’s Potential warning
China is thought to have placed some missiles on high operational status for the first time; previously, almost all of the weapons belonged to the US or Russia, according to SIPRI. China is on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to an estimate released by the Pentagon in October of last year. Additionally, China is developing a potent intercontinental ballistic missile arsenal.
China might have no less than as many ICBMs as the US or Russia by the end of the decade, according to a Swedish think tank, even if its nuclear warhead stockpile is still anticipated to be far lower than theirs. After Russia invaded Ukraine in full in February 2022, both US and Russia’s nuclear force transparency decreased, and discussions over nuclear-sharing agreements became more important. In response to the increased threat posed by China and Russia, reports also state that NATO is in discussions to deploy additional nuclear weapons.
In addition, SIPRI reported that North Korea, India, and Pakistan are vying with the US, UK, Russia, France, and China for the ability to mount multiple warheads on ballistic missiles.
This analysis follows estimates by the advocacy group International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican) that global spending on nuclear weapons has climbed by 13% to a record $91.4 billion in 2023.
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