Donald Trump’s odds of winning the forthcoming US Presidential Elections in Nov is on an upward trajectory after the failed assassination attempt. His probability of coming back to power is at an all-time high according to Polymarket data. The data shows a jump around 70% on the platform, where users can bet cryptocurrency on world events.
President Biden became the oldest President in the US to be sworn-in at the age of 78 years. He has been under scrutiny over his ability to lead the country for another term. Democrats in both the houses of US Congress have publicly called upon Biden to drop out from the Presidential race.
Donald Trump unfolded as a strong leader
Donald Trump had been leading in the forecast for months but since Biden’s disastrous debate on 27 June his re-election bid dropped drastically. Trump’s defiant reaction after the failed assassination attempt in his campaign rally in Pennsylvania has increased speculation that his chances of winning have soared, Bloomberg reported. The shooting has only boosted the positive momentum he has been enjoying.
Images of bloodied Trump, pumping the fist at the crowd and the waving American flag in the background are growing viral. It enhanced Trump’s reputation as a strong leader at all odds which the US is in dire need of.
Rising political violence in US
The video clips of the shooting on a former President and running candidate for the elections horrifies the whole country with many Americans fearing it to be the presage of a rising trend of political violence in the US.
The assassination attempt could harbinger a return to political violence which the US experienced in the 1960s. When the US faced rising violence and assassination attempts on numerous politicians. It took the lives of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy. At those times most political violence came from the Left and in recent years research shows it has overwhelmingly come from the Right (Reuters analysis)
How can one forget the Jan 6 attack at the United States Capitol in 2021. The supporters of Trump marched on the Capitol building with the goal of stopping the certification of President Biden. They tried to overturn the 2020 Election results, a majority of Americans believe that it was an attack on democracy.
When polarizing figures attempt to normalize violence as a political tool it needs to be stopped since it only spreads across the spectrum and can create retaliatory cycles.
Violence against political leaders on rise in recent years
On 8th July 2022, former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated while giving a campaigning speech. Gun violence in Japan is rare since handguns are banned in Japan. Even an act of political violence is almost unheard of and still it killed the longest serving PM of Japan.
Similar attack on Former PM of Pakistan Imran Khan who survived an attempt of assassination on him which took place on 3rd Nov 2022 when his convoy came under fire in eastern Punjab province. He alleged that the sitting PM Shehbaz Sharif and his close aides were behind the attack.
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-Myung, leading candidate ahead of the next presidential race in 2027 was stabbed in the neck on 2nd Jan. Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico was shot in an assassination attempt and critically injured when he was mingling with the crowd on 15th May.
According to a United Nations report political violence no longer affects only the low income states, it has spread across the spectrum.
