Donald Trump a Republican candidate who had defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election according to a fox news , capping an incredible political comeback four years after leaving the White House.
He declared, “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” in front of a boisterous throng at the Palm Beach County Convention Center early on Wednesday. He was accompanied by Trump’s family, Republican leaders, and his vice presidential running mate, Senator JD Vance. As of now Donald Trump won in 276 electoral college votes which is enough to return to the White House. While Kamala Harris got 223 electoral college votes and lost it to Trump.
A Return to “America First”: Shifts in Foreign Policy
Donald Trump’s foreign policy has been largely characterized by skepticism toward multilateral institutions, prioritization of direct bilateral agreements, and a focus on economic self-reliance for the U.S.A. His administration saw significant policy shifts, including the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, contentious relations with NATO allies, and a largely confrontational stance on China. Re-entering office, Trump would likely re-emphasize an “America First” approach, potentially reducing the U.S.’s role in international peacekeeping and diplomatic initiatives.
Implications of Reduced Global Engagement
A withdrawal from international institutions could destabilize regions reliant on U.S. support, such as NATO member states in Eastern Europe. Trump’s reluctance to commit to defending allies under NATO could embolden adversaries, including Russia. Additionally, Trump’s focus on bilateral agreements rather than multilateral cooperation may lead to a less coordinated global response to pressing issues like climate change, human rights, and global health crises. This pivot could create vacuums of influence that other global powers, particularly China, may seek to fill.
Economic Policy and Trade Relations
Trump has traditionally favored protectionist economic policies, aiming to secure jobs for American workers by reshaping trade agreements and imposing tariffs on imports, notably from China. A second Trump presidency would likely reintroduce or strengthen tariffs, affecting global trade patterns, particularly in manufacturing and technology. Conversely, Biden’s policies lean toward strengthening alliances through multilateral trade agreements and prioritizing shared economic growth, which promotes stability in global markets.
U.S.-China Relations: Escalating Tensions
While both Trump and Biden share concerns over China’s growing influence, Trump has been especially direct in his approach, with tariffs, sanctions, and rhetoric positioning China as the U.S.’s primary global competitor. Under Trump, U.S.-China relations could further strain, potentially leading to higher tariffs and restrictive trade policies. These tensions could disrupt global supply chains, especially in industries heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, such as technology and pharmaceuticals.
Key Differences Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s Approaches
A Biden administration emphasizes multilateralism, re-engagement with allies, and active participation in global governance institutions. Unlike Trump’s tariffs and isolationist economic policies, Biden promotes collaborative trade practices and policies that align with climate and human rights goals. Moreover, Biden’s administration has shown a strong commitment to NATO and defense alliances in the Indo-Pacific, counterbalancing Chinese influence.
Under Trump, there might be an increased risk of destabilizing key alliances if economic protectionism leads to retaliatory trade measures. Where Biden seeks compromise and alliance strengthening, Trump often prefers unilateral, transactional deals. This difference impacts global stability, especially for countries like India, which may need to navigate a more volatile trade environment under Trump.
Pros and Cons for India Under a Trump Presidency
India’s interests align and diverge with both Trump’s and Biden’s policies in unique ways, as India’s strategic goals require balancing its relationships with the U.S., China, and Russia. With Trump in office, India could experience specific benefits and challenges.
Advantages for India
- Stronger Bilateral Defense Ties: Donald Trump’s presidency emphasized a strong military partnership with India, offering access to advanced U.S. defense technology, and pushing for a strategic counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific. Trump is likely to continue supporting India’s role as a regional power to curb Chinese influence.
- Alignment on China: Donald Trump’s confrontational approach to China could resonate with India’s stance on China, particularly regarding territorial disputes in the Himalayas. India may benefit from Trump’s policies that limit China’s influence, such as export restrictions on technology and infrastructure investments aimed at rivaling China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
- Flexible Immigration Policies for High-Skilled Workers: Donald Trump has expressed openness to skilled Indian workers in the technology sector, understanding their contributions to U.S. innovation. This may benefit India by providing more opportunities for skilled professionals abroad, although Trump’s broader immigration stance remains restrictive.
- Economic Opportunity through Bilateral Trade:Donald Trump’s preference for bilateral trade agreements could allow India to negotiate deals more favorable to its own interests, sidestepping restrictions that might be present in multilateral frameworks.
Challenges for India
- Trade Uncertainty: Donald Trump’s unpredictability in trade matters could destabilize India’s export sectors, particularly in textiles and pharmaceuticals. Tariffs or increased scrutiny on Indian goods could strain bilateral trade, impacting India’s economy.
- Immigration and Visa Issues: Although Trump supports high-skilled immigration, broader immigration policies could still affect Indian students and workers in the U.S. Changes in H-1B visa policies could limit opportunities for Indian IT professionals, which would also impact India’s remittance economy.
- Reduced Climate and Environmental Cooperation: India and the U.S. have collaborated on clean energy and climate resilience. Under Trump, reduced focus on climate policies could hinder India’s goals to transition toward renewable energy and tackle pollution, as the U.S. may pull back funding for green initiatives.
- Reduced Multilateral Support: With a focus on bilateral relationships, Trump’s approach may reduce the U.S.’s engagement with multilateral organizations, which India often relies upon for economic and security cooperation. India could lose valuable support in its broader regional engagements if Trump reduces U.S. participation in forums like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.
Strategic Outlook for India
To navigate a potential Donald Trump administration, India would need to employ a flexible and adaptive foreign policy. Strategically, India may deepen its military collaboration with the U.S. as a counterbalance to China, while also strengthening ties with regional powers like Japan and Australia. Economically, India may seek to leverage Trump’s bilateralism by negotiating favorable trade terms directly with the U.S. while bolstering ties with the European Union and Southeast Asian nations to mitigate potential disruptions.
India must also prepare for a scenario where U.S.-China tensions escalate, as this could have spillover effects on India’s economy and regional stability. Furthermore, India could enhance its climate policies independently, potentially emerging as a leader in regional climate initiatives, compensating for the lack of U.S. involvement under Trump.
