As the vote counting reaches its end we do seem to have a clear result of the 2024 Lok Sabha
elections. While the BJP is still the largest majority party with 241 seats, it does not have a clear majority for the first time in the Lok Sabha. This is also the first time Narendra Modi will operate a coalition government in his life. Since his days as Chief Minister, he has not operated a coalition government.
So where exactly did the BJP go wrong? What factors alienated their own voters from them? Were there any regions where they gained? Where could the opposition pick up more steam? And finally, ho will this victory impact the psyche of the BJP and their election strategy in the future? Let us discuss below.
Table of Contents
High Skill Jobs
While the BJP has created more job opportunities and had more people enter the job market, the truth is that these jobs are mostly unpaid, or do not require professional degrees. This has rendered many educated people useless, where their skills do not match the jobs they do.
While this policy for jobs is great for Tier 3 cities, it has not been good for Tier 2 and Tier 1 city Indians, which still form almost 60% of the voter base.
Elections after sidelining of local leaders
A big hit to the BJP was the lack of support on the ground. According to many insiders, the BJP gave a bigger push to Narendra Modi than to more local leaders. This is most seen in the unconfirmed reports circulating in and around UP: that around 35 ministers recommended by Yogi had been replaced by the top brass (Nadda, Modi and Shah) and hence very few of them had a ground connect with the people. While the tweet itself may be deleted, the fact remains that the candidates selected did not have the same ground connect they should have had with the people of the state.
While UP has been the state with 80 seats, the loss of this state alone sets the BJP behind the exit poll predictions of roughly 330. Whether the BJP now chooses to attack the size and dominance of UP on Bharatian politics is now a question that maybe time will answer.
Appeasement of Everyone means Appeasement of No One
The BJP has constantly appeased muslims throughout their second term. This has included making houses for muslims, increasing schemes for them, providing them education for UPSC, free pilgrimages, modernizing madrasas, and the list goes on. While one would expect that this would ideally transfer to votes, it did not. Instead, we saw a sharp increase of votes from Muslims towards the INC by 29%. This means that the Muslim voter has consolidated.
This has shown that such acts by the BJP not only don’t add to their vote share, they also actively alienate their core voter base.
The reservation and constitution debate
While many senior leaders of the BJP had said that they may change the constitution, when these speeches were blown up on social media the BJP top leadership, including mr Modi, Rajanth Singh and others completely opposed the constitution change, with PM Modi citing that even if Ambedkar was to return, he will not be able to change the constitution.
This combined with independent journalists like Tavleen Singh citing economic benefits for annihilating reservation creating a controversy, made it very easy for the I.N.D.I.Alliance to divorce the SC/ST vote from the BJP. They merely needed to go to every home with a pamphlet and tell the SC/ST voter “Babasaheb ka samvidhan badal denge, aarakshan hata denge (they will change Baba Sir Ambedkar’s constitution and remove reservation)”. This was enough to disturb the SC/ST voter to vote against. And as the BJP had been trying to appropriate Ambedkar instead of raising new Dalit leaders from history like Jagjivan Ram to the fore, which also backfired.
The problem isn’t the removal of reservation: the Bharatian public is smart enough to vote for what is in their interest and in their national interests both. The problem is that the BJP once again backtracked on this.
This alienated their core voter and earned them zero new seats.
The Ram Mandir For All is a Ram Mandir For None
While a lot has been said about temple politics, it is a fact that the SC/ST/OBC hates being compared to Muslims. Most of their ancestors fought against Muslim Rule in Bharat.
So while the reformist aspect of allowing all Sanatanis works wonders for their psyche, they get angry when they realize this privilege extends to Muslims too. It feels as if the privilege of entering the temple is not special for them. From jobs, to housing to food, they are forced to share it with Muslims, whether they are of Bharatian origin or illegal immigrants. The Muslims have better welfare too. Extending the Mandir as well to them makes them feel cheated.
Future perspectives
Since the BJP has lost from UP mainly, while mostly making gains in the south, and retaining east and central Bharat, we can expect the BJP to take a less Hindi heartland stance.
While it is important for them to focus on their own base expansion, they have to do it on an ideological basis. They have to win people over. Simply appropriating a few independence icons will not fit the bill.
We may see the BJP support delimitation, as per the map proposed by Mr Gautam Desiraju. This may bring parties like the DMK closer. Similarly other governance system and polity reforms can be pursued.
How the BJP proceeds with their victory must be seen in the coming months. Regardless, a larger mandate for a party like the BJP to penetrate the southern states, that too after penetrating the northeast previous Lok Sabha, establishes them as an all-Bharat big tent party, and an alternative to the INC. This is good for democracy in the long run. This political stalemate can also allow both parties to push for major structural reforms in terms of how the country is governed (without any bias towards either side). At the end of the day, this mandate is proof that the people have won, and not the politicians.
