India and Russia have historically shared a robust and strategic partnership, with defence collaboration standing as the cornerstone of their bilateral relationship for decades. However, in recent years, this cornerstone appears to be eroding, replaced increasingly by energy ties, particularly in crude oil supply. This shift underscores broader geopolitical, economic, and strategic realignments in the international arena.
A Legacy Built on Defence Ties
India’s defence collaboration with Russia, dating back to the Cold War, has been pivotal in shaping its military capabilities. Over 60% of India’s defence equipment originates from Soviet or Russian designs, underscoring decades of mutual trust. Iconic projects like the BrahMos missile and nuclear submarine leasing exemplify this deep-rooted partnership.
However, in recent years, India has diversified its defence imports to include partners like the United States, France, and Israel. This diversification is driven by delays in Russian deliveries, reliability concerns, and the strategic aim of reducing dependency on a single supplier. Moreover, India’s increasing alignment with U.S.-led security groups, such as the Quad, has further influenced its procurement strategies.
Declining Defence Cooperation
Several challenges underscore the cooling of Indo-Russian defence ties. For instance, while the S-400 missile defence system deal is advancing, it has faced delays, compounded by U.S. sanctions under CAATSA. Additionally, the FGFA project, once a hallmark of Indo-Russian defence collaboration, stalled over disagreements about costs and technology-sharing terms.
India’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (self-reliant India) initiative adds another layer of complexity. By focusing on indigenous defence production, India is steadily reducing its dependence on Russian imports, leading to a marked decline in the percentage of Russian-origin arms in India’s arsenal over the last decade.
The Rise of Energy as a Strategic Anchor
As defence ties wane, energy cooperation has emerged as the primary pillar of the India-Russia relationship. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent Western sanctions have compelled Russia to pivot toward Asian markets. India, a major energy importer, seized this opportunity to purchase discounted Russian crude oil, significantly boosting trade volumes.
Before 2022, Russia played a minor role in India’s oil imports. By mid-2023, it had become India’s largest crude supplier, surpassing traditional partners like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. This arrangement benefits both nations: India secures affordable energy to fuel its economic growth, while Russia offsets its loss of European markets.
Challenges in the Energy Partnership
Despite its growth, the energy partnership is not without hurdles. Western sanctions on Russian banks have complicated payment mechanisms, prompting India and Russia to explore alternatives like local currency trade. However, the rupee-ruble trade framework faces challenges due to India’s trade surplus with Russia, limiting its scalability.
Moreover, India’s reliance on Russian energy must be balanced against its strategic ties with Western allies. While the West has tolerated India’s oil imports from Russia so far, escalating geopolitical tensions could invite greater scrutiny and pressure.
A Broader Geopolitical Context
This transformation in India-Russia relations reflects larger global trends. Russia’s pivot to Asia aligns with India’s growing focus on energy security. However, the shift from defence to energy signifies a reduction in the strategic depth that once characterized their partnership.
For India, maintaining strategic autonomy remains critical. In a multipolar world, India must balance its historical ties with Russia and the growing imperatives of its partnerships with the U.S., Europe, and Indo-Pacific nations.
Epilogue
India-Russia relations are at a crossroads. The longstanding defence partnership is no longer the dominant factor, overshadowed by a burgeoning energy relationship. While this shift represents pragmatic responses to global realities, it raises important questions about the long-term trajectory of their partnership. To sustain a strong and mutually beneficial relationship, India and Russia must explore new avenues for collaboration beyond traditional sectors.
