Ukraine, having opposed the Nord Stream project due to the significant loss of transit fees, now faces scrutiny over its alleged role in the undersea bombing of the pipelines.
Volodymyr Z, a Ukrainian national, is currently the subject of an arrest warrant issued by Germany following a nearly two-year investigation. He is suspected of involvement in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.
The Ukrainian government, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has denied any involvement in the incident, which has significantly strained relations between Ukraine and Europe across the Baltic Sea.
According to reports from German and American media, Volodymyr Z was allegedly part of a six-person team that dove into the Baltic Sea and planted explosives on both the Nord Stream 1 and one of the two Nord Stream 2 pipelines.
There remains uncertainty regarding the true identity of Volodymyr Z, who is believed to be operating under a codename. However, Polish officials have reportedly informed German authorities that the suspect was in Poland in July before returning to his home country.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Nord Stream operation was allegedly orchestrated at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government, with senior officials directly involved. An officer reportedly involved in the plot described the operation as having originated “out of a night of heavy drinking and the iron determination of a few individuals who were willing to risk their lives for their country.”
Reports suggest that President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan, but when the plot was leaked to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the agency pressured the Ukrainian leader to abandon it.
If Zelensky ultimately reversed his decision on targeting the Nord Stream pipelines, the question remains: who authorized the operation?
According to reports, Zelensky’s commander-in-chief had already committed to the plan and proceeded with the operation, despite the president’s decision to withdraw.
In a noteworthy development, Zelensky’s presidential advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, attributed the explosions to Russia in a statement on Thursday, firmly denying Ukraine’s involvement in the sabotage.
Russia, for its part, has claimed that the blasts were approved by the US, the UK, and Ukraine. All three deny any involvement.
The Nord Stream has long been a bone of contention
In the 2000s, Germany engaged in several rounds of negotiations with Russia to construct a direct pipeline for gas supply. The goal was to reduce energy costs for Germany and secure long-term energy stability.
Prior to the Nord Stream pipelines, Russian gas was transported through Ukraine, which earned approximately $2 billion annually in transit fees. These costs were ultimately passed on to consumers, in this case, the Germans. The construction of the Nord Stream pipeline, at today’s rates, amounted to $8.1 billion.
As Germany and Russia explored alternative routes that would bypass Ukraine, Poland saw a potential earning opportunity. However, the decision was made to pursue a sea route instead.
During the formalization and implementation of the Nord Stream pipelines, both Ukraine and Poland were outspoken in their opposition, citing significant security concerns.
A brief timeline of the Nord Stream pipelines
2005: Although initial discussions began in the 1990s, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement in 2005 to construct the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
2010:Construction of Nord Stream 1, a 1,224-kilometer-long twin pipeline, commenced on both the Russian and German sides.
2012:The Nord Stream pipelines became operational, with the operator projecting that they could supply gas to Europe for at least the next 50 years.
2013:Planning for Nord Stream 2 began, involving two additional pipelines of 1,250 kilometers set to run parallel to Nord Stream 1.
Crimea and Beyond
In March 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, drawing widespread condemnation across Europe and the United States. Despite the outcry, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel chose not to suspend the Nord Stream pipeline project.
The annexation of Crimea heightened Ukraine and Poland’s criticism of the Nord Stream pipelines, with both countries raising security concerns. The European Union also voiced its own apprehensions regarding energy security and the potential for a new diplomatic realignment.
In the United States, following the 2016 election, President Donald Trump warned Germany that it was becoming overly dependent on Russian energy supplies. Trump argued that this dependence gave Russian President Vladimir Putin more leverage than he should have to influence Western interests.
Germany dismissed these concerns, viewing the Nord Stream pipelines as not only a solution to Europe’s ongoing energy supply issues but also as a long-term guarantee of stability due to the substantial financial investments involved.
When construction on Nord Stream 2 began in 2018, the United States reacted with anger. U.S. Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, sent threatening letters to German companies involved in the project.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was completed in 2021, coinciding with the election of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz maintained that the gas pipelines should be regarded as a commercial, private sector project and evaluated independently of the West’s relationship with Putin’s Russia.
The Invasion of Ukraine and the Nord Stream Explosions
In February, Russia invaded Ukraine, a close ally of Germany. The invasion validated the concerns that Ukraine had long expressed. In response, a range of sanctions was imposed on Russia, though gas continued to flow through the Nord Stream pipelines.
Over July and August 2022, Russia shut down Nord Stream 1, citing maintenance needs, but many believed the move was intended to pressure the West into easing sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine. Although gas supplies eventually resumed, the flow did not return to previous levels.
Amid this backdrop, a team of suspected Ukrainian operatives allegedly dove into the Baltic Sea near Denmark’s Bornholm Island to plant explosives on three Nord Stream pipes. Germany soon launched an investigation in collaboration with Denmark and Sweden.
Now, nearly two years later, Germany has issued an arrest warrant for one of the six suspects, identified as Volodymyr Z—a name notably similar to that of the Ukrainian president—accused of detonating the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
