Lok Sabha elections: 5 swing states to have keen watch

Extract of Lok Sabha elections 2024

The onset of March 2024 and the buzz of the world’s largest democratic elections begin to be heard from all corners of the country. The tenure of the 17th Lok Sabha will terminate on June 16, 2024. And the elections for the 18th Lok Sabha are expected to be declared in the first week of March by the Election Commission of India.

The entire globe has a keen interest in the biggest festival of democracy, in which more than 94 crore voters will participate (which is going to be a new benchmark in the history of human franchise) and are going to choose their representative for the next 5 years.

The two opposite blocks of the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bhartiya Janata Party versus the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance led by the Indian National Congress, which represents the right-wing and center-right ideologies in Indian politics, respectively, will fight for the power of the world’s largest democracy.

The BJP is represented by strong charismatic leader Narendra Modi, who is the world’s most popular leader at present. whereas the Congress party is represented by the young, enthusiastic leader Rahul Gandhi. The battle of 2024 is, in some way, the competition between these two leaders and their capabilities. Below, I have briefly discussed the five swing states that are going to decide on which side the politics of India will turn for the next five years.

Uttar Pradesh

It is a famous saying in Indian politics that ‘Delhi ka rasta UP se hokar jata hai‘, which means whoever wants to establish its government in New Delhi has to win Uttar Pradesh. It is inevitable to include Uttar Pradesh in the discussion of Lok Sabha elections because it includes the highest number of Lok Sabha seats, which is 80.

Since the last two general elections, the BJP has almost swept Uttar Pradesh in terms of seats, and the opposition was seen to be completely wiped out. In my understanding, the two biggest reasons for the success of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in the last two general elections are: first, the narrative, and second, the leader.

It is an undeniable fact that the biggest return the BJP got from Hindutva politics was from Uttar Pradesh. In 2014, the BJP polarized the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh after the incident of the Muzaffarnagar riots, which has tremendously benefited it along with 10 years of anti-incumbency of UPA government and finally led to its victory on 71 seats. Since 2014, the BJP has very smartly done social engineering in UP, under which it has brought major OBC castes, especially Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits, into its fold, which was very evident in the 2017 assembly elections. And bye, the 2019 BJP has both narratives of kamandal and Mandal in its basket, which is an undefeatable combination.

secondly, the leadership of Narendra Modi, is invincible as far as Lok Sabha 2024 elections are concerned. For the last 10 years, he has been heading the government, and even after 10 years of prime ministership, he is the world’s most popular leader, which is never before seen in history, which clearly shows the cult of the prime minister. What is referred to as ‘brand Modi’. The state of Uttar Pradesh is known to have prime ministers. When the voters of Uttar Pradesh see that none of the UP regional party leaders will become prime ministers, even if they vote for them, then Narendra Modi and the BJP become their obvious choices.

At present, the Samajwadi Party and Congress have allied and also declared their seat-sharing formula. Still, it’s very difficult to assume how far this coalition is going to go. Though the issue of the caste census has some resonance on the ground, whether it will transfer votes is still a question.

West Bengal

The well-known psephologist, Yashwant Deshmukh, said West Bengal will be the mother of all battles in the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. At present, there is a three-corner fight in Bengal between the TMC, BJP, and Congress plus the left. In the last elections, TMC, the ruling party in the state, won 22 seats. The BJP has performed very well by winning 18 seats which has established it as dominant force in Bengal, and 2 seats went to the Congress party.

These 42 seats in Bengal are very crucial because they are the only ones where there is a possible opponent of Narendra Modi in the form of Mamata Banerjee. In other states, Modi is the dominant face, but Bengal is an exception. It is the battle of leader vs. leader, or, in other words, Modi vs. Mamata.

For the BJP’s ambition of winning 370 seats in Lok Sabha, Bengal is very fertile ground where it can increase its graph. If Congress and TMC ally, it may consolidate the minority votes (which is a very sizeable population in Bengal) in favor of the alliance and change the outcome of the results. But if the BJP manages to win more than 18 seats or even repeats its last performance, it will be a major setback for Didi.

Maharashtra

It is a state where not only the political pandits are confused but even the voters are in a dilemma as to whom they will vote for because one faction of Shiva Sena and the NCP is with the BJP and the other faction of Shiva Saina and NCP is with Congress. Democracy has been murdered continuously in Maharashtra politics for the last 5 years. The voters are very disappointed what has happened in the last 5 years. which has demotivated the spirit of democracy.

Maharashtra constitutes the second-highest number of Lok Sabha seats. it was once very fertile ground for the India block, but the continuous defection of opposition party leaders (because of the possible worry of the ED and CBI) has weakened the INDI alliance. The first split in Shiv sena in June 2022 and then the split in the NCP in 2023 have completely changed the political discourse of the state. How the politics of Maharashtra will play out in the 2024 general elections and the in the assembly elections, which are going to be held a few months after the Lok Sabha, will be very interesting to watch out for.

Andhra Pradesh

The only South Indian state of India, where both the national parties, Congress and BJP, are insignificant players. Andhra Pradesh constitutes 25 seats, is becoming a very hot state in the context of the Lok Sabha election 2024. At present, The state is ruled by the YSR Congress party under the leadership of Jagan Mohan Reddy, who won the 2019 assembly elections with a splendid victory and also won 22 seats in the Lok Sabha. The main opposition party in Telangana is the Telugu Desam Party, led by Chandrababu Naidu.

For the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the TDP and Janasena had made a alliance against the YSR Congress. As per the survey the position of Jagan Mohan Reddy is not so good, and it seems that TDP will make a comeback. The anti-incumbency and charges of corruption against the leaders of the YSR Congress have been working against Jagan Reddy.

Both the YSRCP and TDP want to align with the BJP, but as of now, BJP has not done any alliance and is in a wait-and-watch situation. It seems that a post-poll alliance may be made by the BJP after seeing the results.

Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu constitutes 39 Lok Sabha seats, and the politics is highly dominated by the dravidian ideology represented by two strong regional parties, namely the DMK and AIADMK. The state is ruled by the DMK, which is in alliance with the Indian National Congress. In the last election, the DMK-led Alliance won 38 seats (an almost clean sweep) in the general election.

According to this survey, it is high possibility that the DMK-led alliance will repeat its 2019 performance in Tamil Nadu. BJP has also worked significantly on its cadre strength for the last one year, the highest number of non-political programme of the prime minister were in Tamil Nadu. There are high chances for the BJP to increase its graph in this election in terms of vote percentage, but whether it will get transferred in terms of seats is still a doubt.

Conclusion

So these five states together constitute 234 Lok Sabha. out of these 103 seats were won by the BJP, 11 were won by the INC, and the remaining 120 seats were won by the regional parties. One can draw the simple conclusion that when there is a direct fight between the BJP and Congress, the strike rate of the BJP is more than 90%, but when there is a direct fight between the BJP and regional parties, the strike rate is comparatively low.

Indian voters are very intelligent and they know how to use their vote effectively, which is very evident from the voting patterns of Lok Sabha and assembly elections. The same voter who votes for the regional party in state assembly elections votes for the different party in general elections.