Since October 7, 2024, Israel has ramped up operations in Lebanon, focusing on Hezbollah’s leaders and infrastructure. Key strikes targeted high-ranking figures like Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, aiming to weaken its leadership and disrupt its command structure. Israel has also targeted its military facilities, using advanced technology to minimize detection while dismantling weapons storage, communication hubs, and supply lines. Increased Israeli surveillance has further hindered its logistics.
The Regional Context and Hezbollah’s Leadership Losses
On October 7, 2024, a series of deadly airstrikes targeted high-profile figures within the organisation, including its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who had led the organization since 1992. Nasrallah, a seasoned leader, had been instrumental in consolidating military and political power across Lebanon and beyond, making his leadership synonymous with the organization’s regional ambitions.
His death represents a significant blow to its ideological and operational stability, as his leadership embodied a blend of religious rhetoric, regional influence, and a hardline stance against Israel and its allies.
Accompanying the loss of Nasrallah were other key figures like Hashem Safieddine, head of Executive Council. Safieddine held substantial power within the organization, managing its finances, administrative structure, and international partnerships, particularly with Iran.
Safieddine’s influence had positioned him as a likely successor to Nasrallah, and his death has intensified the search for a leader capable of maintaining its coherence in the face of external threats and internal disarray.
The deaths of additional military and intelligence leaders, such as Ibrahim Aqil of the Radwan Force and Intelligence Chief Ali Hussein Hazima, have left its military structure more vulnerable and prompted speculation about how effectively the group can maintain its operational edge.
Potential Successors and New Leadership Dynamics
In the wake of these losses, attention has turned to potential successors who may take the reins of Hezbollah, each bringing different visions for the organization. A leading candidate for the role is Sheikh Naim Qassem, who has served as Deputy Secretary-General for decades and is one of the few remaining original leaders from its early days has been appointed as the new chief of the organisation.
Qassem is well-regarded for his ideological commitment and strategic mind, though his style contrasts with Nasrallah’s charismatic public image. Unlike Nasrallah, Qassem is known for his behind-the-scenes approach, focusing on policy and religious guidance rather than public engagement. His elevation to the top role could signal a shift in its leadership approach, potentially becoming less visible but more ideologically driven.
Another possible figure is Nabil Qaouk, who, before his recent death, had been the deputy head of its Central Council and wielded influence in southern Lebanon. Qaouk was involved in managing organisation’s outreach and logistical strategies across Lebanon’s borders, particularly in areas with strong support bases.
Although Qaouk’s untimely death eliminated a possible successor, other figures from its Central and Shura Councils may emerge, though none appear to possess the same level of experience or loyalty among its supporters as Nasrallah and Safieddine.
Lebanon’s Political Landscape and the Challenges Ahead
Hezbollah’s restructured leadership will face immediate and complex challenges as Lebanon contends with both domestic pressures and external threats. Internally, Lebanon remains mired in a severe economic crisis, with the Lebanese pound suffering catastrophic devaluation, and unemployment rates soaring.
These hardships have fueled discontent among the Lebanese public, with protests becoming increasingly common in areas previously considered strongholds. Amid the economic turmoil, organisation’s strong ties to Iran and its focus on military engagement over economic relief have exacerbated public frustrations.
In recent statements, Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have directly called on the Lebanese public to push back against this organisation, claiming that its actions have plunged Lebanon further into crisis. This rhetoric, coupled with airstrikes targeting its military infrastructure, has strained organisation’s image domestically as a “defender” of Lebanon, as more Lebanese citizens question the group’s priorities.
International Repercussions and Iran’s Role
Iran’s influence over its direction remains pivotal. Iran has historically played a role as primary benefactor, providing funding, training, and ideological guidance. The recent deaths of its leaders could prompt Iran to intensify its involvement, seeking to maintain the organization’s alignment with its own regional strategies.
Iran’s guidance will likely play a significant role in choosing and consolidating new leadership figures within the organisation, as Tehran aims to preserve its influence over Lebanon’s political and military landscapes.
Additionally, its leadership changes are likely to impact Lebanon’s relations with neighboring countries, especially Israel. The absence of experienced military strategists like Ibrahim Aqil may embolden Israel to continue its operations against its positions in southern Lebanon.
Furthermore, the new leaders may either escalate military responses to reassert strength or take a more cautious approach, seeking to rebuild capabilities before engaging in broader confrontations.
Potential Scenarios for Hezbollah and Lebanon
As it navigates this period of transformation, Lebanon’s political future remains uncertain. A new leadership team may decide to de-escalate regional engagements and focus on restoring public confidence within Lebanon. Alternatively, it might intensify its military actions as a means to project strength, potentially risking broader conflict with Israel and drawing Lebanon further into regional instability.
The Lebanese government, already weakened by economic and political crises, faces the challenge of either containing its influence or allowing the organization to dominate the country’s defense strategy, a dilemma that has deepened Lebanon’s divisions.
Some Lebanese factions, including international stakeholders, may see this as an opportunity to advocate for a non-sectarian, sovereign governance model that moves away from its control. However, achieving this vision would require substantial local and international support, along with assurances of security against both internal factions and external threats. The recent deaths of its leadership cadre have ushered Lebanon into an era of profound uncertainty. As it contemplates its succession plan, Lebanon stands at a crossroads, with both challenges and opportunities that could reshape its identity and alliances in the region.
