A recent working paper released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) has brought to light significant shifts in the religious demographics of India from 1950 to 2015. India’s Hindu Population drops by 7.82%, Muslim Share Up 43.15%. The study titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)’ provides a detailed analysis of the shifting shares of various religious communities within India over 65 years, set against a backdrop of global trends. This analysis reveals notable changes in the proportions of these communities, highlighting the broader implications for diversity and minority protection in the country.
Hindu Population and Insights from the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) recently published a comprehensive analysis titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)’ which indicates significant changes in the religious composition of India’s population over 65 years. According to this working paper, the proportion of Hindus in the Indian population has decreased by 7.82%, from 84.68% in 1950 to 78.06% in 2015. In contrast, the Muslim population has increased from 9.84% to 14.09%, marking a 43.15% increase in their share.
Minority Growth Compared to Global Trends
The paper compares these trends with global data, noting similar trends in other nations where minority populations are either stabilizing or increasing. It particularly highlights the stark contrast with neighboring South Asian countries where majority religious denominations have grown while minority populations have declined. The authors of the paper suggest that these changes reflect India’s conducive environment for fostering diversity and protecting minority rights, established since the 1950 formation of the United Nations and the mainstreaming of minority protections.
Detailed Findings on Other Religions
Other findings from the report reveal mixed trends among different religious communities. The Christian population in India rose slightly by 5.38%, while the Sikh population saw a 6.58% increase. However, the Parsi population faced a drastic 85% decline. The report does not apply the same detailed percentage analysis to the Buddhist and Jain populations, which it notes have also seen noticeable changes.
Misinterpretations and Clarifications
Following the publication, the Population Foundation of India (PFI) criticized certain media outlets for misinterpreting these findings, particularly the growth in the Muslim population, in a manner that could spread alarm. They argue that such reporting overlooks broader demographic trends and factors influencing population changes, such as education, income, and access to healthcare, which have led to declining birth rates across all religious groups in India.
Comparative Fertility Rates
Further demographic insights come from the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS), which indicate that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Muslims at 2.36 is only marginally higher than the 1.94 TFR for Hindus and the national average of 2. This points to a universal trend of declining fertility across communities, attributed to improved socio-economic conditions rather than religious factors.
Political Reactions and Social Implications
The release of the EAC-PM paper has sparked considerable debate among political circles, especially with the ongoing Lok Sabha election. Some political figures have raised concerns about the timing of the release and the motives behind it, fearing it could inflame communal tensions. In contrast, others stress the need for responsible journalism and policy-making that promotes inclusive development and gender equity to foster a balanced society.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
The data and discussions generated by the EAC-PM’s working paper underscore the complexity of demographic shifts within India and their interplay with socio-economic factors. The misrepresentations of the data highlight the need for careful interpretation and reporting to avoid inflaming tensions or misconceptions. Looking ahead, it is crucial for policymakers, media, and civil society to engage with this data thoughtfully, promoting policies and narratives that foster an inclusive, diverse, and harmonious Indian society.
