The war between Russia-Ukraine has been going on for almost 30 months. The frontlines have hardly moved since the last few months. The prospects for an end of the war remains negligible since the preconditions set by Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin are non-negotiable for both the states.
Why does the Russia-Ukraine war have an implication on the global order?
The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war has the potential to shift the international order. Because it directly involves a nuclear power like Russia, also a key player in International affairs.
The outcome of the war hangs, survival of Ukraine’s identity as a sovereign state, the future of Europe’s security, and the preservation of so-called US led rules-based international order. It has also impacted the food and energy security globally.
The war against Ukraine has incurred huge losses for Russia which will ultimately weaken its standing in the global order. Russia is more dependent on China than ever before. They have forged new alliances which aim to reduce western influence and strengthen their own position in the global order.
At the same time the west has united against its common enemy Russia, by providing military aid and assistance to Ukraine. Russia hopes that “Ukraine fatigue” will eventually erode western support.
The non-western world has little meaning for a war going on in another continent since they reject the western narrative to associate this war with a threat to the current rules-based international order. Regardless, who wins, they just want essential supply chains to remain uninterrupted and stabilization of the global economy.
US-China strategic rivalry continues behind the scenes
The threat to US led global order remains as China is increasing its clout across the globe. Even if Russia’s influence is declining , the US sees China as a formidable challenge to its global primacy.
China hasn’t been impartial in this war, and blamed the US and the NATO allies for provoking this invasion. China has been indirectly supporting Russia since the beginning. India and China buying subsidized oil has been a big help for Russia to avoid western sanctions.
The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war will have little impact on this power struggle for global primacy going on between the US-China.
How might the war end?
Russian victory seems unlikely as NATO allies have strengthened their united front against their century old enemy Russia. Its best chance of winning rests on the west to grow tired and Ukraine to become exhausted. There is a delayed support package by the European Union as most of the European states are struggling with political and economic turmoil. Additionally there are prospects of Donald Trump coming back to power in the USA, who might end or scale down military assistance to Ukraine.
A Ukrainian victory also seems unlikely, as Russia is holding up its defenses by dumping huge numbers of soldiers and equipment on the battlefield. Russia has huge military arsenals to keep fighting against a small state like Ukraine. The Russian economy has been sustaining the war by selling Russian oil at subsidized price.
The current situation might lead to stalemate or stand-still, but in the upcoming months. For the negotiation process to start both the leaders must have a chat which is difficult at this point since the pre-conditions set by them are dangerous. Ukraine wants Russia to step back to the point from where the invasion began on 26 Feb 2022. Russia doesn’t want NATO to reach its borders, a condition from which Putin would never back down.
Fatigue from the war might put the war in Ukraine at stand-still.
When this might happen is still a question to be answered.
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Insightful and comprehensive!