Will India Boost its nuclear arsenal in response to China’s progress, Recently, on May 18, 1974, India carried out a Peaceful Nuclear Explosion at Pokhran. Nearly twenty-five years later, it conducted a series of five nuclear tests of advanced weapon designs at the same site. These tests propelled India into the ranks of nations with nuclear capabilities, enabling it to weaponize and maintain a nuclear arsenal.
The journey to weaponization and operational readiness was fraught with challenges. Due to the need for secrecy and the long interval between the first and second series of tests, the military was largely kept out of the loop for an extended period. Prior to the 1998 tests, General K. Sundarji (Retd), a former Army chief, had noted that India lacked a coherent nuclear weapon policy and an institutionalized system for policy analysis and development.
Despite the drawbacks of excluding the military from the program, India had to quickly move towards operationalizing its nuclear deterrent amid mounting pressures. Following the tests, India faced international sanctions and calls to roll back its nuclear program and sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1172, condemning the tests. However, India remained resolute and released its Draft Nuclear Doctrine (DND) in August 1999, presenting itself as a responsible nuclear power.
The growing Chinese nuclear arsenal and Beijing’s advancements in ballistic missile defense might compel India to adjust its warhead count to ensure a credible second-strike capability. The DND’s publication served multiple purposes: it demonstrated India’s commitment to maintaining its nuclear program despite global condemnation, projected India as a responsible nuclear state, established its deterrence posture, and reassured the public and policymakers about the government’s commitment to national security.
India’s nuclear doctrine is founded on three pillars: credible minimum deterrent, no first use, and massive retaliation in the event of a nuclear attack. Ensuring a credible deterrent necessitated the development of a force structure capable of guaranteeing a second-strike capability. This task was challenging but undertaken with determination. The current force structure evolved from the draft doctrine’s guidance, emphasizing that India’s nuclear forces should be effective, enduring, diverse, flexible, and responsive, based on a triad of aircraft, mobile land-based missiles, and sea-based assets. Survivability of the forces was to be enhanced through redundancy, mobility, dispersion, and deception.
Following the formation of the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), a command-and-control structure was established, and necessary assets were transferred. The air arm was the first to be operationalized, followed by land-based missile forces starting with Prithvi-II missiles and the Agni series. The sea-based deterrent began with Dhanush missiles on surface platforms and was strengthened with the INS Arihant, an underwater asset. While operationalizing its nuclear delivery systems and warheads, India also had to address Pakistan’s aggressive nuclear posture. Pakistan has expanded its warhead count and developed tactical nuclear weapons, claiming “full spectrum deterrence” and rejecting a ‘no-first use’ policy.
In addition to Pakistan, China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, fueled by its arms race with the United States, pressures India’s goal of maintaining a minimum credible deterrent. Although India has not matched Pakistan warhead for warhead, China’s growing capabilities and missile defenses might necessitate an increase in India’s warhead count to maintain an assured second-strike capability.
Recent technological advancements, such as the cannisterized Agni P and Agni-V missiles, represent significant progress. These missiles offer enhanced mobility, quicker response times, and greater survivability. The commissioning of INS Arihant also bolsters India’s sea-based deterrent. India needs to quickly operationalize a longer-range sea-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and develop an air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) to further strengthen its nuclear arsenal.
Since the Pokhran tests, India has developed a credible nuclear deterrent. As new threats and technologies emerge, maintaining a relevant and effective nuclear deterrent is crucial and achievable with India’s indigenous solutions.
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