The outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections will have a significant impact on the H-1B visa framework and other types of employment-based immigration for skilled workers. This possibility was highlighted in a recent report by JM Financial.
Trump’s Re-Election and H-1B Visas
According to the report, if Donald Trump is re-elected, his previous restrictive stance on H-1B and L-1 visas could return, potentially increasing scrutiny and denial rates for these visas. During Trump’s first term, H-1B visa denial rates rose from 4% to 17%, while L-1 visa denials increased from 12% to 28%. Such trends could re-emerge, particularly affecting IT services firms that traditionally depend on these visas.
Impact on IT Industry
The report mentions Trump’s “Buy American and Hire American” Executive Order (E.O. 13788) from his first term, which aimed to reduce reliance on foreign workers and increase restrictions on H-1B visas. Noting his campaign statements, Trump has adopted a firm stance on protecting American jobs. If his statements on H-1B visas hold true, companies like Infosys and TCS could face significant challenges to their U.S. operations, indicating a potential return to stricter visa policies should Trump regain office.
The industry has already responded to these changes since Trump’s first term. Many IT services companies have significantly reduced their reliance on H-1B visas, with estimates indicating that the proportion of visa-dependent employees has dropped from 65% to below 50% in recent years.
Source: theregister.com
Trump’s Election Campaign Highlights
Donald Trump has stated that the H-1B visa program, which allows highly skilled foreign workers to be employed even in his own businesses, should be discontinued, calling it “very unfair” to American workers and claiming it has led to job losses. He also mentioned receiving support from Disney employees, many of whom reportedly lost their jobs to H-1B visa holders. “It’s a mess. I think we need a period of a year or two to assess where we are, where we stand, and what’s happening,” Trump said when asked about potentially pausing the H-1B visa program. He added, “We need to take a strong, thorough look and develop effective plans.”
Previous Attempts
Trump’s prior administration aimed to raise minimum wage requirements for H-1B visa holders, a move blocked in court but one that could signal future attempts to restrict these visas further by pricing some employers out of the market. Currently, H-1B wages are reported to be 25–35% above prevailing rates, weakening claims of wage suppression by visa holders.
Additionally, the evolving legislative landscape, with bipartisan bills focused on immigration reform, could greatly influence the future of high-skilled immigration in the U.S.
Impact of Kamals’s Election
The report suggests that a Kamala Harris presidency would likely maintain the “status quo” on immigration policy, potentially offering stability for visa-dependent firms.
