India Faces Regional Turmoil: Bangladesh unrest adds to tense neighborhood relations!

Hot borders with Pakistan, PLA incursions into Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, Communist regime in Nepal, volatile borders with Myanmar, and now Bangladesh! How will India ensure harmony in a politically fragile landscape?

In a rapid turn of events, the long reigning Sheikh Hasina Government in Bangladesh has now plopped to its feet. On August 5, the ‘Iron Lady’ of Bangladesh resigned her Prime Ministerial position and fled the country after a week of violent protests.

The unrest started as students protested against the controversial quota system in government jobs. However, the movement swiftly took a political shape, enveloping the whole country in violent flames.

Hasina’s flight has created a political vacuum in the Indian neighborhood, flaring political turmoil in the region.

Let’s dive deeper to understand the political instability encircling the Indian- subcontinent and how it impacts India.

Bangladesh

On August 5, Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country under military pressure. Hundreds were killed in a nationwide crackdown on demonstrations that began as a student protest against discriminating job quotas. The protests swelled into a political movement that eventually drove Hasina out of the country.

Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman announced Hasina’s resignation and declared that an interim government would be formed.

Hasina was New Delhi’s closest ally, and her exit is worrisome. Which is why India must carefully trot its next steps in order to ensure good relations with whoever assumes power in Dhaka.

As per Indian Express, India has always faced a tough time whenever the BNP-Jamaat or the army took charge in Bangladesh.

“This situation could well rise again, and New Delhi cannot afford to have another front open when the LoC and the border with Pakistan is hot again, and the Indian Army is in a long standoff with the PLA in eastern Ladakh,” it added.

The Indian Border Security Force has also issued a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border.

Myanmar

In 2021, the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar was ousted in a coup. Since then, the country has been ruled by the military junta.

Not only is the country facing a stalling economy but is also going through a mass rebellion against the army rule.

According to the Print, India in February decided to cancel the Free Regime Movement between the two nations. 

New Delhi has also decided to fence its 1,643 km long border with Myanmar. The move comes after the failure of the junta in keeping its promise to help the Indian Army fight insurgents on its borders.

This has led to an influx of refugees in the Indian North Eastern States, particularly Mizoram and Manipur – thus having dire implications on national security.

Myanmar is crucial for India to increase its presence in Southeast Asia. Hence, any form of instability in Myanmar is a direct challenge for Indian interests in the region.

Pakistan

As former Prime Minister Imran Khan completed one year in prison, the country witnessed wide scale protests from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The country has been facing economic as well as political crisis. With skyrocketing inflation, speeding unemployment and massive poverty, the country is in shambles.

“The civilian government has lost its legitimacy due to economic problems, and the military stands discredited and is quite confused about its own direction”, Amit Julka, an assistant professor of International Relations at Ashoka University in New Delhi, told DW.

The professor also mentioned that India is maintaining a low-grade hostility and a studied aloofness towards Pakistan. 

Nepal

Nepal’s political instability, marked by frequent changes in government, has intensified tensions with India.

Since the Republican system was introduced, the country has witnessed 14 governments in the last 16 years.

The primary friction point in the India-Nepal relations is the latter’s growing alignment with China, raising security concerns for India. This shift has led to heightened tension along the border, notably in the Kalapani Region.

KP Sharma Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal, took power for the fourth time earlier this year. He headed Nepal to bind closer economic ties with China, breaking India’s long trade monopoly over the country.

Accusations of India’s alleged economic blockades have further strained bilateral trade and supply chains.

As per South-East Asia Monitor, India has thus far adopted a wait and watch approach. 

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has been grappling with a severe economic crisis, leading to nationwide protests.

Two years ago, Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned and fled the country after demonstrators stormed his residence.

His successor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, a veteran politician and five-time prime minister was chosen as a compromise candidate from the United National Party (UNP).

The country will go through its general elections in the coming month of September and October. 

Expert Opinion:

“In a scenario where we have incorrigible Pakistan at one end and genuinely friendly Bhutan at the other end of the spectrum, and everyone else somewhere in between, it is perhaps difficult to write one single foreign policy prescription for the entire region.”  – former Indian Ambassador, Anchal Malhotra says.

“It is arguably clear however that India can ill afford to adopt aggressive postures in its neighborhood and will have to tread with caution while dealing with its oversensitive tiny neighbors,” he added.