India is likely to reach it’s maximum population mark by 2062, as the population will stand at approximately 1.70 billion, finds the UN World Population Prospect which was released on Thursday. Thus, India has only 38 years in hand before it reaches its peak population. It even added that India, as its the populous country, is expected to remain so by the end of the 21st century. The top 3 populous countries are expected to be India, China and Pakistan.
Table of Contents
Pakistan to Overtake the United States
According to data from the UN, India’s population is expected to start declining between January and July 2062. That year, the population will likely grow by 222,000 people. However, starting in 2063, the population will begin to decrease, with a projected loss of around 115,000 people. This decline is expected to increase to 437,000 in 2064 and 793,000 in 2065.
The report also shows that India is currently the most populous country in the world, with a population of 1.451 billion. China is at second position with 1.419 billion people, and the United States comes in the third with 345 million. Interestingly, by 2054, India and China will retain their positions, but the US will be replaced by Pakistan to become the third most populous country, with a population of 389 million. These rankings are expected to continue until the end of the 21st century.
For the world, the UN projects that the total population will start declining in 2083, at around 10.2 billion people. Between January and July of that year, the global population will begin to decrease. Currently, the global population is around 8.16 billion.
Africa to Experience Population Boom, Others Decline
The countries projected to experience the highest population growth between 2024 and 2054 are in Africa. In nine countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia, very rapid growth is anticipated, with their populations expected to double during this period.
However, in approximately 100 countries, the working-age population between ages 20 to 64 will grow faster than the total population between now and 2054, fostering a demographic dividend. India is one of these countries.
The report also predicts that by 2080, the number of people aged above 65 will surpass those under 18.
The UN recommends that countries, especially those with populations that have already peaked or will peak in the coming decades, should leverage technology, including automation, to enhance productivity across all age groups. They should also focus on creating more opportunities for lifelong learning and retraining, supporting multigenerational workforces, and extending working lives for those who can and wish to continue working.
Decline of Fertility Rates Among Women
Additionally, the report highlights a global trend of declining fertility rates. On average, women are having one child fewer than they did around 1990. In over half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level required to maintain a stable population size in the long term without migration.
Almost one-fifth of all countries and areas, including Republic of China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now experience “ultra-low” fertility rates, with even lesser than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
Key Points from UN Population Data
The following key points have been summarized from the separate report published by UN, highlighting the key points from their main document.
- Global Population Peak: The world’s population is expected to peak around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024, before declining to 10.2 billion by the century’s end.
- Population Peaks: One in four people live in countries where the population has already peaked. In 63 countries, representing 28% of the global population in 2024, the population peaked before 2024. In 48 countries, with 10% of the global population, it will peak between 2025 and 2054. The rest will see growth through 2054 and beyond.
- Declining Fertility Rates: Women today have one child fewer on average than in 1990. The global fertility rate is now 2.3 live births per woman, down from 3.3 in 1990. Over half of all countries have fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman.
- Early Childbearing: In 2024, 4.7 million babies (3.5% of the total) were born to mothers under 18, including 340,000 to girls under 15, posing health risks. Investing in education, especially for girls, and increasing the age of marriage and first childbirth can improve health, education, and workforce participation.
- Life Expectancy Post-COVID: Life expectancy is rising again post-COVID, reaching 73.3 years globally in 2024. It is projected to reach 77.4 years by 2054. Life expectancy has returned to pre-pandemic levels in most countries.
- Population Growth Drivers: Population growth through mid-century will be driven by the momentum from past growth, with the number of women aged 15–49 increasing from nearly 2 billion in 2024 to a peak of 2.2 billion in the late 2050s. This age structure will account for 79% of the population increase through 2054.
- Demographic Dividend: In about 100 countries, the working-age population (20 to 64 years) will grow through 2054, offering a demographic dividend. To benefit, countries must invest in education, health, infrastructure, and job creation.
- Ageing Population: By 2080, those aged 65 and older will outnumber children under 18. By the mid-2030s, people aged 80 and over will outnumber infants. Advanced economies should use technology to boost productivity, support lifelong learning, and extend working lives.
- Immigration and Population Growth: Immigration will drive population growth in 50 countries, counteracting declines due to low fertility and ageing. However, in 14 countries with ultra-low fertility, emigration will reduce population size through 2054.
- Gender Equality and Population Dynamics: Promoting gender equality and women’s empowerment can counter rapid population changes. Removing legal barriers, raising the marriage age, and integrating family planning into primary health care can enhance women’s education and economic participation, reduce childbearing, and support economic security for older men and women. Policies supporting parental leave, childcare, and equitable caregiving can boost labor participation and encourage childbearing.
