In a strategic shift prompted by a series of lethal Israeli strikes, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reduced the deployment of senior officers in Syria. Instead, they are relying more on allied Shi’ite militias to maintain their influence in the region, according to five sources familiar with the matter. The Guards’ presence in Syria has been one of support for President Bashar al-Assad in the decade-long conflict.
The recent deadly Israeli strikes, occurring since December, have claimed the lives of over half a dozen Revolutionary Guards members, including a top intelligence general. This has led to a reevaluation of Iran’s approach, driven in part by Tehran’s reluctance to be directly drawn into a wider conflict in the Middle East, as hardliners in the Iranian capital call for retaliation.
Despite this scaling back of senior officers, the sources emphasize that Iran does not intend to completely withdraw from Syria, a crucial component of Tehran’s sphere of influence in the region. The shift in strategy highlights the evolving consequences of the conflict sparked by the October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Iran, a key supporter of Hamas, has sought to avoid direct involvement in the conflict itself while backing groups forming the “Axis of Resistance” in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria – all hostile to Israeli and U.S. interests.
According to a senior regional security official briefed by Tehran, senior Iranian commanders, along with dozens of mid-ranking officers, have left Syria, describing it as a downsizing of their presence. The exact number of departing Iranians remains undisclosed, and Reuters was unable to independently verify this information.
The Guards’ strategy moving forward involves managing Syrian operations remotely, with assistance from ally Hezbollah, a Lebanese group also involved in the conflict. Those remaining in Syria have reportedly reduced their visibility, leaving their offices and staying out of sight. The objective is to maintain a presence in Syria while minimizing exposure to the ongoing conflict.
The recent changes in deployment have not yet impacted operations, as the downsizing aims to prevent Tehran from being drawn into the Israel-Gaza war. Since the eruption of the Gaza conflict, Israel has intensified its longstanding campaign of airstrikes aimed at reducing Iran’s influence in Syria, targeting both the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah.
Israel rarely acknowledges its attacks in Syria and has not claimed responsibility for recent strikes. In response to Reuters’ inquiries, the Israeli military declined to comment on foreign media reports.
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The situation escalated on January 20 when an Israeli strike killed five Guards members, including a general overseeing intelligence for the Quds Force, responsible for the Guards’ overseas operations. Another strike on December 25 claimed the life of a senior Guards adviser coordinating between Syria and Iran, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leading prayers at his funeral.
Sources reveal that the Guards have expressed concerns to Syrian authorities about information leaks within the Syrian security forces playing a role in the recent strikes. Fears of an “intelligence breach” have led to the relocation of operational sites and officers’ residences.
Iran initially sent forces to Syria at the invitation of President Assad, aiding in repelling rebels who had seized control of significant areas during the conflict that began in 2011. Despite Assad’s subsequent success in regaining control, Iran-backed groups continue to operate across large parts of Syria, solidifying a zone of Iranian influence stretching through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to the Mediterranean.
In response to the challenges faced by the Guards, there are indications that they are once again recruiting Shi’ite fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to deploy to Syria. This echoes earlier phases of the war when Shi’ite militias played a pivotal role in turning the tide of the conflict.
Gregory Brew, an analyst with Eurasia Group, suggests that the failure to protect Iranian commanders has undermined Iran’s position. However, he believes Tehran is unlikely to end its commitment to Syria, recognizing the importance of preserving its role in the region. Notably, any weakening of Iran’s role could play into the hands of Russia, which has also supported Assad.
Russia, having deployed its air force to Syria in 2015, is a crucial ally for Assad. If Iran’s influence diminishes, Moscow stands to gain, although potential competition in Syria could strain the relationship between Russia and Iran. Recent statements from Russia indicate expectations of a new treaty between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ebrahim Raisi, highlighting the strengthening political, trade, and military ties between the two nations. The evolving dynamics in Syria have broader implications for the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
