Iran’s Reformist Pezeshkian Wins 2024 Elections; Promising Change Amid Challenges

In a surprising turn of events, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has emerged victorious in Iran’s recent presidential election runoff, defeating his ultraconservative rival Saeed Jalili. This outcome marks a significant departure from the country’s recent political landscape, which has been dominated by hardline factions.

What has happened and why is it significant for Pezeshkian? 

Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon, secured over 16.3 million votes, surpassing Jalili’s 13.5 million. His victory in Iran’s presidential election came at a time when the country was facing a combination of heightened regional tensions, a longstanding dispute with Western powers over its nuclear program, and significant domestic unrest stemming from the detrimental effects of economic sanctions on the Iranian economy.

The snap election was originally scheduled for 2025 but was brought forward following the unexpected death of ultraconservative president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. Pezeshkian’s path to the presidency involved a second round of voting after he led in the initial round, overshadowing Jalili.

Pezeshkian’s victory has been seen as a message from the public, presenting an opportunity for gradual reforms at home and careful engagement with the world. The president-elect has pledged to enhance relations with Western nations and ease enforcement of Iran’s compulsory headscarf regulation, which has been a source of public discontent. 

Voter Turnout and Its Implications for Pezeshkian 

The election witnessed historically low voter turnout, with only 40% of eligible voters casting their ballots in the first round – the lowest participation rate since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This reflects a growing disillusionment among the Iranian public with the political system and the government’s handling of the country’s economic and social challenges.

Despite the initial low turnout, the second round saw a slight increase, with nearly 50% of voters participating. The higher turnout in the runoff can be attributed to the reformist coalition’s support for Pezeshkian, which mobilized a significant portion of the electorate. However, the overall low turnout underscores the public’s discontent and the legitimacy crisis facing the semi-representative system in Iran.

The Future Outlook for Pezeshkian’s Presidency 

Pezeshkian’s victory has been seen as a message from the public, presenting an opportunity for gradual reforms at home and careful engagement with the world. The president-elect has pledged to enhance relations with Western nations and ease enforcement of Iran’s compulsory headscarf regulation, which has been a source of public discontent. 

However, Pezeshkian’s ability to enact significant changes will be constrained by the power dynamics within Iran’s political landscape. The president of Iran has a restricted scope of power, as the true locus of authority lies with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who commands the country’s theocratic system.

In the lead-up to the runoff, the Iranian government intensified its crackdown on media, issuing warnings to at least 17 newspapers and sealing the studio of the liberal-leaning Fardaye Eghtesad media outlet. This repression of press freedom underscores the challenges Pezeshkian may face in pushing for reforms. 

Pezeshkian’s victory also comes at a time of heightened regional tensions, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and its support for militia groups in the region. The new president’s stance on these issues is expected to maintain continuity rather than ushering in drastic changes, as he has positioned himself as a unifying figure for all Iranians, transcending political and religious divides.

The extent of Pezeshkian’s ability to enact meaningful reforms remains to be seen, as he navigates the complex power dynamics within Iran’s political landscape. While his election represents a departure from the confrontational stance of his predecessor, the new president will need to carefully balance the demands of the reformist camp, the hardline factions, and the Supreme Leader to achieve his goals. 

Overall, the outcome of Iran’s presidential election reflects the country’s ongoing struggle between competing ideological forces and the public’s desire for change. Pezeshkian’s victory, while significant, does not guarantee a smooth path forward, as he must contend with the entrenched power structures and the external pressures facing the Islamic Republic.