India’s decision to go for assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir from September 18 is, therefore, a defining moment in the tortuous political history of that troubled region. This is going to be the first Assembly election in a decade and the first since the Narendra Damodaran Modi government abrogated the special status of the region in 2019, reducing its autonomy and reconstituting it as a Union Territory. As the elections come closer, the political scene is rife with tension, uncertainty, and hopes for democratic restoration.
The last assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir was held in the year 2014. It brought to the State a coalition government that was never headed before by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the People’s Democratic Party. However, this alliance collapsed in 2018, resulting in the dissolution of the assembly. In August 2019, the Modi government controversially rescinded Article 370, removing special status and bifurcating the state into two union territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. According to the government, it was meant to provide more integration with India, but critics worldwide responded sharply against the move, accompanied by a tough security crackdown and months-long communication blackout.
Elections Amid Reduced Autonomy: A Shifting Power Dynamic
The elections will be held in an altogether different political landscape. While the election will provide a local government, critical powers of the assembly are much reduced compared to the pre-2019 period. Legislative authority over key issues such as law and order, finance, and land rights remains with the central government in New Delhi. The elections will be held for an assembly with restricted powers on themes such as education and culture—a fact that leads critics to describe the process as an empty democratic exercise.
The BJP has tried to project these elections as one step towards normalcy in the region, but it cannot duck some tough challenges. On the local level, there is a continuous seething of resentment against abrogation of Article 370 and perceived erosion of democratic institutions. A demand that has been echoed by the PDP, National Conference, and other regional parties has been the restoration of statehood status prior to any meaningful electoral exercise. The decision of the poll body to redraw constituency boundaries in 2022 added seats to Hindu-majority Jammu, including itself at Muslim-majority Kashmir’s expense, further fueling accusations of gerrymandering aimed at diluting the political influence of the valley.
Militancy and Military: Balancing Elections with Security
Security remains a prime concern with only a few months to go for the elections. Violence in this region has relatively speaking come down since 2019, but in the last few months, there has been an uptick of militant activity, particularly in the Jammu region. Tens of thousands of troops are to be deployed by the Indian government to maintain order during the elections, underlining the volatile security situation. The separatist leadership, which has traditionally called for election boycotts, is yet to announce its stance on the upcoming polls, but a significant section of the population has remained skeptical about participating in something they consider an illegitimate exercise under military occupation.
Mixed Reactions: Hope and Skepticism Among Electorate
Responses to the announcement of the election diverged within the public. While some of Kashmir Valley’s residents, like Haya Javaid from Srinagar, were guardedly hopeful about the resurrection of electoral politics, many others, like Malik Zahoor, regretted that the announcement did not have to do with the reiteration of the commitment to the restoration of statehood. The region saw a historic voter turnout of 58.46% in the 2024 general elections—increased by miles hammering over 2019 figures, suggesting a more experiential play rather than only expressions of aspiration and disillusionment among the electorate.
High Stakes: Do Elections Restore Trust?
Called against the backdrop of political turmoil and security concerns, the elections will be watched keenly by the region as well as internationally. With more than 8.7 million eligible voters, the turnout will be an important indicator of people’s sentiments. The final verdict, to be declared on October 4, will reveal whether the electorate chooses to engage with the current political process or remains disillusioned by the changes of the past decade. With the polling days approaching, will this election finally register a move towards normalcy, or will it further fracture the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir?
