KP Oli returned as the PM after PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal lost a vote of confidence in Parliament. In Nepal’s Parliament a new coalition government was formed after the liberal Communist Unified Marxist Leninist(UML) led by KP Oli withdrew its support and struck a deal with the centrist Nepali Congress. Oli became Nepal’s fifth PM in 5 years promising political stability.
KP Oli is seen as being ‘pro-China’
Nepal’s ties are expected to become closer with China in KP Oli’s tenure. India is worried that PM KP Oli will likely set in motion the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Projects which was signed seven years ago. Nepal is advised to take cautious steps when dealing with China because it could fall into the Debt Trap policy and it will add to its economic woes in the long run.
Back in 2015, Madhesi people were not happy with the newly adopted constitution of Nepal, they staged a blockade which caused an economic and humanitarian crisis in Nepal. KP Oli blamed Indian government interference for the 2015 Nepal blockade. Since the Indian government held meetings with the Madhesi protesters which are believed to be an attempt to provoke them for blockade. This event has led to some anti-Indian sentiments in Nepali people too.
Factors responsible for Nepal’s political instability
Nepal is a landlocked country between two major powers in South Asia, India and China. It holds a geo-strategic position which is used by the US, assisted by India against China. It is South Asia’s youngest democracy which has been politically unstable since monarchy was abolished in 2008. Even a single government hasn’t been able to complete a term of five years.
One important factor is political polarization which has led to division between political parties not of ideologies per se but of their personal individual differences and self-centered behavior. Political parties lacks the credibility since they are engaged in corruption scandals which has undermined the trust in government institutions.
India-Nepal shares deep historical and cultural ties. China has been expanding its clout in the South Asian Region through trade and investments. In Nepal, China has been replacing the influence of India through huge infrastructure investments projects.
Intervention of major powers such as India, China and the US in Nepali politics is considered to be a significant factor for its political instability. Intervention is not always militarily but it could be of political pressure, economic sanctions or economic support. In Feb 2022, Nepal’s parliament ratified a $500 million grant offered by the US aid agency through the Millennium Challenge Compact, which was unfavorable for China.
Repercussions of political instability in Nepal
A politically unstable environment produces unfavorable conditions for investments. Due to political instability and economic turmoil people have lost faith in their political leaders. It has become difficult to build political consensus for any party.
Economic development of a country is crucial to democracy’s future. Unstable government has certainly discouraged investments causing economic woes to the common citizenry. Lack of job opportunities have forced millions of young people to work in countries like Malaysia, South Korea and the Middle East.
South Asian nations are balancing India’s influence by reaching out to China. They are balancing both the major powers in the region and at the same time enjoying the benefits of huge investments provided by them for the growth of their economies. Nepal’s political parties must compromise on their personal differences and work for the betterment of their people.
4 Comments
Excellent coverage of the issue.
Excellent coverage.
Excellent analysis and view points.
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