Myanmar’s military regime (also known as the Tatmadaw) has extended the state of emergency for another six months as the armed revolt against the regime deepens. Members of the military-controlled National Defense and Security Council unanimously decided to extend the state of emergency, blaming terrorist acts by its opponents for the failure to hold elections. They have stated the extension of emergency will allow them more time to gather population data and voter lists ahead of a promised election next year.
Military coup in Myanmar
Since independence Myanmar has struggled with repressive military rule and civil war with ethnic minority groups. The hopes for democratic transition was shattered after the military junta seized power from a democratically elected government on February 1, 2021. Tatmadaw declared the results of general elections held in Myanmar in November 2020 as invalid and instated a one-year state of emergency.
Leader of the winning party and the de-facto civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior officials of National League for Democracy (NLD) party were wrongfully charged and put on house arrest on the grounds of widespread fraud in the general elections.
Massive protests erupted nationwide with tens and thousands coming to the streets after the military coup. The protest was a peaceful civil disobedience movement with government employees including doctors, health-care workers and teachers refusing to go to work until the elected government returned to power. These protests were violently crushed by the military, after which the opposition activists decided to call for a nationwide armed uprising against the junta.
Eventually, ousted NLD officials, protest leaders and activists established a parallel government known as the National Unity Government (NUG) and promised to overturn the military government with the People’s Defense Forces, who are confronting military junta at several fronts.
Widespread armed Insurgency in Myanmar
The state of emergency was initially declared for a year following the military coup. Military junta renewed the state of emergency every six months because of the protest movement waging against them which has evolved into an armed insurgency.
The military junta is facing widespread opposition from ethnic armed organizations to which the military has responded with a brutal crackdown on opposition forces and protestors. But still Junta is finding it hard to maintain control amid widespread uprising and economic crisis. They have not been able to consolidate control over large areas of the country.
Anti-military insurgents which have inflicted serious losses on the armed forces and controlling kilometers of territory. The country is in danger of breaking apart if the situation continues, the military is looking weak, and possibly beatable.
China tries to play all sides in Myanmar
In March 2021, China condemned the violent crackdown against the civilians and engaged with ousted NLD’s members. Its support changed dramatically in 2023 when China forged closer ties with the military junta but quietly maintained contacts with the pro-democracy civilian government.
Both depend upon China for weapons and political support. And now a strategic triad between China, Russia and Myanmar is emerging. Hopes for any meditation is dim till China’s support for Myanmar continues to be guided by its self-interest.
China’s policy in Myanmar is a “hedging strategy” wherein China fosters closer ties with Tatmadaw and at the same time backing ethnic armed groups along the Chinese borders. Whatever happens in the course of time in Myanmar, China’s strategic interest remains untouched.
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