February 2024 marks three years since the Myanmar military seized power, overthrowing the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup led to a massive civil disobedience movement and the formation of a National Unity Government with the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and affiliated ethnic militias confronting the military on several fronts. The situation at the Indo-Myanmar border is concerning, with refugees from Myanmar settling in Mizoram and Manipur. The political and socio-economic landscape of Myanmar remains deeply troubled, characterized by continued military rule, widespread conflict, and significant humanitarian challenges.
Tensions in Myanmar
The civil war in Myanmar has had a significant impact on India’s Act East Policy. The conflict has escalated between the military junta and various resistance forces, resulting in territorial control shifts. In October, an alliance of the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched coordinated attacks on the military, leading to massive losses in locations like the Shan State and Paletwa town, a critical node in India’s Kaladan project. The regions inhabited by the majority Bamar ethnic community, such as Sagaing, Bago, and Magwe, also witnessed a significant spike in resistance.
The military’s loss of territory is not solely due to incapacity but also due to challenges in recruiting from Bamar-dominated regions. There have also been sporadic reports of government officials, doctors, and police personnel assisting the resistance movement. The military’s use of extreme measures, including thermobaric bombs, has led to severe civilian casualties and violations of international humanitarian law. The resistance movement, gaining momentum through operations like Operation 1027, indicates a significant challenge to the military as well, with high-ranking officer casualties and defections within the military ranks.
The conflict has caused massive displacement, with nearly 2 million internally displaced people and about 94,000 refugees fleeing to neighboring countries. Significant human rights abuses, including attacks on civilians, blocking humanitarian aid, and persecution of minority groups like the Rohingya, continue to be a major concern. The conflict has also led to the fleeing of several Myanmar army personnel into Mizoram as well.
The situation at the Indo-Myanmar border is a cause for concern, with 416 people from the Myanmar Army crossing the border and some citizens of Myanmar seeking refuge in Mizoram and Manipur, raising fears of tension spreading to Northeast India. The conflict has also led to the increased presence of Indian insurgent groups in Myanmar, posing grave national security implications for India. The political and socio-economic landscape of Myanmar remains deeply troubled, characterized by continued military rule, widespread conflict, severe inflation, and humanitarian challenges including persecution of minority groups.
India’s Act East Policy
India’s Act East Policy, launched in 2014, aims to strengthen India’s economic and strategic ties with countries in Southeast Asia and East Asia. The policy focuses on fostering economic cooperation, cultural connections, and establishing strategic partnerships with other countries, including Japan, South Korea, and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It aims to enhance connectivity in various dimensions, including political, economic, cultural, and people-to-people relations. This is achieved through consistent engagement at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels, aiming to enhance connectivity in various dimensions.
The policy includes initiatives such as the Agartala-Akhaura Rail Link between India and Bangladesh, intermodal transport links and inland waterways via Bangladesh, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport project, and the Trilateral Highway Project connecting the North East with Myanmar and Thailand. Under the India-Japan Act East Forum, initiatives such as road and bridge construction and the upgrading of hydroelectric power projects have been undertaken.
The Act East Policy aims to achieve its long-term developmental goals for the Northeastern region and provides an additional path to accelerate economic development, countering China’s rising aggression in South Asia. The Policy is bolstered due to China’s increasing influence in the Southeast Asian and Indian Ocean regions. The end of the Cold War and China’s growing power have changed the nature of Indo-ASEAN relations. However, economic connections and security cooperation are expected to further strengthen these relations. The conflict in Myanmar has disrupted India’s plans to open up the North East to trade and commerce, which is a crucial component of the Act East Policy.
India – Myanmar Free Movement Regime
The India-Myanmar border Free Movement Regime (FMR) is a mutual arrangement between the two countries that allows tribes living along the border on either side to travel up to 16 km inside the other country without a visa. It was implemented in 2018 as part of the government’s Act East policy, when diplomatic relations between India and Myanmar were on the upswing. The rationale behind the implementation of the FMR agreement was that the British demarcated the border between India and Myanmar in 1826, without seeking the opinion of the people living in the region. The border effectively divided people of the same ethnicity and culture into two nations without their consent.
The FMR was supposed to boost local trade and business, as the region has a long history of cross-border trade. Additionally, people residing near the border in Myanmar find Indian towns more convenient for business, education, and healthcare. However, the illegal migration of tribal Kuki-Chin peoples into India from Myanmar is one of the key issues OF FMR. The Union Home Minister has recently declared that the Centre has decided to fence the whole length of the India-Myanmar border to prevent free movement of people.
Implications for India’s Act East Policy and Regional Stability
The tensions in Myanmar have had a significant impact on India’s Act East Policy, leading to concerns about national security, border stability, and the influx of refugees. India’s diplomatic stance involves a delicate balancing act, addressing humanitarian concerns while maintaining strategic interests. However, the escalating violence and instability in Myanmar forces India to reconsider its position to prevent the fallout from seriously threatening its interests. The ongoing crisis in Myanmar poses critical questions for India’s foreign policy and the broader regional stability in Southeast Asia. India’s role is crucial in shaping the future course of Southeast Asia, emphasizing the need for a balanced and proactive foreign policy approach.
