Following an intense gunfight between the Myanmar Army and pro-democracy militias in the western Chin State of the country, which borders Mizoram, 1,500 citizens of India’s neighboring country sought refuge in Mizoram’s Champhai district early on November 13.
This was a spillover from the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. The rebels are said to have taken control of two bases, the Khawmawi and Rihkhawdar military camps, as a result of their attacks on the ruling military junta, also known as the Tatmadaw. These attacks were reportedly carried out by the Chin National Army (CNA) and the Chin Defense Force, among others. A total of 39 junta soldiers managed to escape to Mizoram before being repatriated by Indian defense authorities.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance, an alliance of ethnic militias, swept across strategic areas along the border with China, seizing control of several towns and overrunning numerous military outposts. This was the setting for the blitzkrieg that occurred in Shan State, in eastern Myanmar.
It is said that a sizable contingent of the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s formidable military, gave up and submitted without a struggle. In order to stop the Tatmadaw from sending reinforcements, the rebels took control of important roads and destroyed bridges.
Following the coup in 2021, communities in Chin State were among the first to take up arms against the junta, ambushing military convoys with their homemade tumiorhunting rifles. Across the huge, hilly state, locally organized militias united under the banner of the Chin Defense Force and started obtaining cutting-edge weaponry from India across the border.
Combat between the armed Arakan Army insurgents, who currently control a large portion of neighboring Rakhine State, and the military has also had an impact on the area south of Chin State, specifically around the town of Paletwa. Several military bases have been captured by ethnic Chin rebels, who have also successfully forced the majority of government forces into heavily guarded barracks in the major cities.
The junta has recently been subjected to a series of intense offensives from pro-democracy fighters in other parts of the country as well as an alliance of three armed ethnic minority groups in Shan State, which is located near the Chinese border.
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Myanmar’s military barely holding
Although the murkiness of war necessitates cautious analysis, Operation 1027 has significant ramifications for Myanmar’s future. First, in spite of its advantages in air power and artillery, the Myanmar military is becoming more and more overextended.
Second, the possibility that the Three Brotherhood Alliance will openly support the pro-democracy movement—at least militarily—emphasizes the resistance’s tenacity and efforts to form coalitions.
Third, China made a bad gamble by turning to the junta. When taken as a whole, the military of Myanmar is weaker than it has ever been in the previous fifty years. The time has come for the pro-democracy opposition in Myanmar to step up its efforts and for its foreign backers to put more pressure on the junta.
What does this mean for Myanmar?
In addition to failing to defend the few EAOs that have sided with the junta and agreed to hold peace talks, Myanmar’s military junta has demonstrated over the past year that it is unable to force reticent EAOs to the negotiating table or to at least stop providing support to the PDFs.
In general, the Alliance’s offensive seems to be a reaction to the military’s own haphazard offensive during the latter part of the summer; thus, it could be considered a “counteroffensive.” Taking into account the larger picture, it appears that all parties are attempting to bolster their positions in the negotiations to create Myanmar’s federal, or confederated, future by achieving significant, if not substantial, military victories.
Now that the Myanmar military is weaker, the junta’s strategy of division and control cannot affect the EAOs. The armed forces are no longer unbeatable. It has not been so simple to remove the PDFs. As they work with EAOs to establish alternative governance structures in sectors that challenge the junta’s purported authority to rule, they are taking part in offensive operations more and more.
The military now faces a year in which its bargaining power, free of the excuse of alleged military superiority, will gradually erode. Given the recent border fighting, Beijing might even pressure the junta administration to modify its terms and scale back its goals, which would further weaken the military’s position. In light of these changes, now might be a good time for outside observers to revisit the civil war and reconsider long-held beliefs.
