Narendra Modi Fails to Secure Outright Majority in 2024 Elections 

BJP Falls Short of Majority

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has won a third term in office, but his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), did not secure an outright majority in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. Despite leading in the polls, the BJP fell short of the crucial 272 seats required to govern alone. The party will need to rely on its coalition partners, who have gained additional seats, to form a government.

A Personal Blow to Modi

The election results represent a significant personal blow to Narendra Modi, who has consistently secured majorities in previous elections, both as the Chief Minister of Gujarat and as the Prime Minister of India. Modi’s formidable reputation, built over a decade of political dominance, has taken a hit as the BJP has experienced a notable loss of more than 50 seats compared to the last election. His campaign, which ambitiously aimed for over 400 seats with the slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” (“This time, over 400 seats”), has fallen short, creating a sense of underachievement despite the overall victory.

Congress-Led Opposition Gains Ground

The Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance made a surprising comeback, defying predictions of its decline and showing a stark contrast to exit polls and pre-election surveys. This revival brought celebrations to the Congress camp, while the BJP supporters experienced a mix of relief and disappointment. Despite remaining the largest party, the BJP failed to meet the high expectations set by its ambitious campaign.

A Record-Breaking Election

This seven-week marathon election saw over 640 million people casting their votes, a turnout hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women, showcasing India’s diverse and dynamic electorate. Despite the BJP’s reduced seat count, Modi’s supporters believe his third-term victory is due to stable governance, effective welfare programs, and an improved global image for India.

Divisive Campaign and Policy Impact

Modi fulfilled key promises to his Hindu nationalist base, including revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, constructing the Ram temple in Ayodhya, and implementing a controversial citizenship law. However, rising joblessness, increasing prices, growing inequality, and a controversial army recruitment reform contributed to the BJP’s seat losses. Modi’s divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, is believed to have alienated some voters.

The Challenge of Coalition Governance

As the BJP will form the government, it will need to rely heavily on its coalition partners, requiring a more consultative and cooperative approach. This dependence could make the government vulnerable if allies feel neglected. This marks a shift from the all-powerful BJP of 2014 and 2019, highlighting changing dynamics in Indian politics. Modi’s decade-long leadership has showcased India’s trend toward a one-party dominant system with a charismatic leader and a disorganized opposition.

Revitalized Opposition and Future Contests

The election results have revitalized the Congress-led opposition, giving them new energy and hope. The diverse INDIA coalition, despite internal turmoil earlier this year, ran a spirited campaign under Rahul Gandhi. This success, despite facing a biased media and fewer resources, signals a potential shift in the political landscape.

The BJP, which holds about a third of India’s over 4,000 state assembly seats, has previously lost to regional parties. With elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi, and Bihar over the next 14 months, the BJP could face significant competition. These upcoming elections are expected to be keenly contested, adding uncertainty to the political future.

Implications of a Third Modi Term

A third term for Modi presents both opportunities and challenges for India. The economy, boosted by government spending, shows growth, but rising inequality remains a concern. Increasing private investment and consumption will be crucial, and creating more jobs is essential to meet the aspirations of the younger population, which makes up a significant portion of India’s billion-plus population.

Modi’s tenure has faced criticism for marginalizing Muslims, India’s largest minority, and for suppressing disputes, with opposition figures facing imprisonment on what they claim are politically motivated charges. Historically, third terms have often been challenging for leaders, with unforeseen events potentially disrupting governance and policy plans. As Modi embarks on his third term, the path ahead is filled with both promise and uncertainty, requiring careful navigation and inclusive governance to address the nation’s diverse needs and aspirations.

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