Can Oli’s Return Bring Concerns for Indo-Nepal Relations?

As PK Dahal Prachanda lost the 5th vote of confidence in during his current term, the United Marxist-Leninist (UML) is all set to return to power with KP Sharma Oli as its head. The return of the ‘nationalist’ leader, with his pro-china inclinations might bring neighbourhood concerns for India. Read to know what’s in store for Indo-Nepal relations!

Set on the assembled dais of coalition support- Prachanda’s government had repeatedly faced withdrawals and ensuing votes of confidence. Only this time did UML’s withdrawal, presumably due to support from NC, proved effective in dethroning him.

A usual in Nepal

Having blamed it on both foreign forces and internal betrayals- hinting at Oli and Deuba (without naming them), Prachanda’s loss of support is a recurrent phenomenon in the Nepali politics. Yubaraj Ghimire reports that such shifts in coalition support often take place due to power considerations irrespective of the ideological inclinations- as was the case with Prachanda’s own past alignments.

Currently standing at 32 seats, he is set to be replaced by the coalition majority of NC and UML. As Oli prepares to return to power, his past stances as a ‘nationalist PM’ pose risk for the Indian trade, geostrategic and diplomatic relations. Read more to know how!

How can Oli’s inclinations impact Indo-Nepal relations?

Back in 2015, Oli’s changes to the Nepali Constitution did not go down well with the Indian PM. Having made controversial interferences within Nepal’s amendments, and blocking trade supplies later, India had worsened its relations with its open-border neighbour. Ever since, Oli had seen closeness with China, alongside blaming the Indian side for polarising Nepalese against their own constitutional amendments. Four years later, the two countries also witnessed flaring of territorial disputes- with distinctive maps published by both presenting the disputed ‘Kalapani’ as their own land.

As Oli returns to power, his ‘nationalist’ stances, and their support from China might re-ignite geostrategic conflicts with India. China sees Nepal as a potential land ally for circling India, and challenging the USA on land and in trade respectively. Resultantly, China has been extending its projects under the Belt and Road Initiative within Nepal- a practice which Oli supports, for gaining alternative trade routes, and which India sees as the new ‘debt trap debacle’.

What can India do?

An increased shift of Nepal towards China can have a direct impact on Indo-Nepal’s people-to-people relation, with increased chances for cross-border polarisation or violence. Further, it can also impact shared infrastructure projects and trade relations. With nationalist ideologies, both Modi and Oli might not have previously preferred to see eye-to-eye, expecting a loss of personal agendas. 

However, if India wishes to prevent increased Chinese interference at its borders, and diversion of its trade- it must respect Nepalese sovereignty, while offering it mutually beneficial trade deals. Oli has hinted at his keen cognisance of Nepal’s essential relations with India- a stance India must tactfully harbour.