A recent report by the Lowy Institute, one of the leading Australian think tanks, underlined the fact that the geopolitics of the Pacific Islands region has been hotting up as a hotbed of strategic rivalry. The report, titled The Great Game in the Pacific Islands, outlines the fine balancing act the small island nations in the region face now in leveraging growing interest from major global powers. As Chinese influence expands, old or traditional friends, such as the United States, Australia, and Japan, try to contend and hold on to their possession of a foothold in the region. This has opened opportunities to many but also created big challenges to Pacific Island nations.
Geopolitical Rivalry and Strategic Shifts
The Lowy Institute’s findings tell a story of a changing geopolitical scene in the region, from one historically anchored by a stable alliance with the United States, Australia, and New Zealand, to one that is considerably more complex, in which China has already emerged as an assertive player. Beijing’s influence can be gauged through the deepening diplomatic relations, substantial infrastructure investments, and the rapidly growing scale of development finance across the Pacific.
Speaking of the same, according to the Lowy report, Pacific Island countries have already become rather good at exploiting this competition, securing favorable deals that further their own development goals. It is a strategy fraught with danger. A warning from the report has it that “unbridled strategic rivalry” could undermine good governance, transparency, and the region’s ability to effectively address such major challenges as climate change, political instability, and post-pandemic economic recovery.
Expanding Influence of China
China has chosen a course of action that consists of infrastructure development, provision of development financing, and broad diplomatic outreach to engage with the Pacific. However, according to the research, “China’s engagement in the region is not limited to economic activities only; it also includes military and security issues such as ambition for greater input in defense and policing matters, as well as digital infrastructure.” These emerging interests are making long-term allies uneasy because they see them as a brazen threat to their long-standing dominance in the region. In recent months, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been inviting leaders from Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands for several weeks in China. This sort of diplomacy accentuates Beijing’s dedication to deepening ties with the Pacific Island nations, as the U.S. allies, particularly Australia, escalate efforts to counter China’s influence in the region.
Pacific Islands as Diplomatic Price-Setters
A study from the Lowy Institute points out that Pacific Island nations are increasingly “diplomatic price-setters.” They play off the geopolitical rivalry to bargain on the best deals possible, particularly when it comes to trade, labor mobility, and climate resilience. Traditional donor-recipient relationships are being readjusted as the small countries of the Pacific Islands negotiate more balanced partnerships that reduce aid dependency and promote sustainable economic development.
This has not been lost. As the research director at the Lowy Institute, Hervé Lemahieu writes that this report’s findings are underpinned by years of deep research and analysis done through some of the Institute’s signature products. Hervé reiterates that the Pacific Island nations enter this competitive environment with a heightened degree of their strategic value and in every way intent on cashing on that.
Risks to Regional Unity
Despite the opportunities, it also notes some significant risks. Fierce competition between the major powers could strain regional cohesion and overwhelm the bureaucratic capacities of smaller Pacific Island states. According to the report, different interests from donor countries risk pulling Pacific Islands in different directions and distracting from local priorities at the detriment of the region’s long-term stability.
As Pacific Island leaders get ready for the coming Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga, the dynamics described in the Lowy report are likely to be core to the discussions. How well these nations can balance geopolitical tensions with their own development goals will determine the future course of the region as China and traditional allies vie for influence. Balancing the opportunities against the risks remains a defining challenge for the Pacific Islands.
