A fragile democracy located in South Asia, Pakistan, the sixth most populous country in the world, is set to conduct elections for its lower house on 8 February 2024. It is an election that will decide the next government for Pakistan, and the governments of its four provinces — Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These elections are taking place against a backdrop of multiple crises including economic and food crises, natural calamities, mass protests and violence, terror attacks, and political arrests, including that of former prime minister Imran Khan. Additionally, three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has returned from exile, potentially aiming to secure a fourth term with the support of the military.
Electoral history
The nascent years of Pakistan’s inception witnessed the establishment of its electoral framework, guided by the principles outlined in the 1935 Government of India Act. The early elections were pivotal, laying the groundwork for a lasting division between federal and state powers and granting autonomy to East Pakistan, which later became Bangladesh. Since then, Pakistan’s electoral landscape has been characterized by alternating periods of democratic governance and military regimes. The military has played a significant role in Pakistani politics. Success in elections has been contingent upon the support of army chiefs, and opposition to the establishment has often resulted in arrest, exile, or worse. Throughout Pakistan’s turbulent history, military generals have both overseen elections and, at times, assumed leadership of the country.
The 1970s were marked by the significant loss of East Pakistan, profoundly impacting political dynamics, particularly in Pakistan Punjab. The subsequent decade saw the military rule of General Zia-ul-Haq, followed by a politically volatile period in the 1990s, during which Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif emerged as prominent yet often unstable political figures. The dawn of the 21st century brought both hope and challenges, with the early 2000s characterized by General Pervez Musharraf’s regime, defined by divisive elections and political constraints. However, the latter half of the decade witnessed a resurgence of democratic norms, culminating in free and fair elections in 2008, which led to the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) forming the government. Subsequent elections in 2013 marked a historic transfer of power from one civilian government to another, underscoring the resilience of Pakistan’s electoral system. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) assumed power under Nawaz Sharif’s leadership, focusing on economic reforms and infrastructural development.
The 2018 elections represented a watershed moment in Pakistan’s democratic history, characterized by intense political dynamics and widespread participation, fueled by a fervent desire for change among the electorate. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged with a strong anti-corruption and reformist agenda, resonating particularly well with the youth and urban middle-class demographics, promising accountability and a departure from traditional political elites. Despite challenges, the PTI formed a government after negotiations and coalition-building efforts, with Imran Khan assuming office as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan. However, like his predecessors, Khan’s tenure was cut short, facing removal through a no-confidence vote in 2022. Shehbaz Sharif, brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, succeeded Khan, facing multifaceted challenges, including economic revitalization, security concerns, and governance reforms.
Challenges Faced by Pakistan
Pakistan is currently facing a myriad of challenges spanning natural disasters, economic instability, political unrest, and security threats. Devastating floods have inflicted significant loss of life, property destruction, and widespread displacement across the nation. Moreover, Pakistan grapples with an economic crisis characterized by soaring inflation, currency depreciation, and dwindling foreign currency reserves. Water scarcity, acute food insecurity, and chronic malnutrition further exacerbate the country’s predicament. Compounded by hosting a substantial population of Afghan refugees, Pakistan contends with an escalating Islamist insurgency, notably led by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Political instability and polarization prevail, with an impending election year unlikely to alter the nation’s trajectory, regardless of the electoral outcome.
Economic challenges are compounded by a surge in attacks from armed factions, contributing to overall instability. Concerns arise over the allocation of significant funds for the upcoming elections, raising fears of potential electoral manipulation favoring certain political entities. Pakistan’s security situation deteriorates due to increased terrorism by Afghanistan-based Pakistani Taliban and Baloch militants. The country’s social, economic, foreign, and security failures are intrinsically linked to political shortcomings, primarily stemming from rampant election delays and rigging. Anticipated 2024 elections are expected to perpetuate political illegitimacy and exacerbate existing challenges across various domains, with blame largely attributed to the security establishment.
A recent hike in electricity costs sparked nationwide protests, posing a threat to the current IMF program. Measures to meet IMF conditions, such as energy subsidy cuts, significantly impact the populace, fueling widespread discontent. The credibility of upcoming elections is in question, reflected in subdued political campaigns. Uncertainty surrounding the electoral process and potential outcomes breeds apprehension among Pakistani citizens.
Major Parties Contesting
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN)
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), a centrist party led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has been a prominent player in Pakistani politics for decades. Despite facing setbacks, including corruption charges and periods of exile, the party has remained resilient. In 2013, the PML-N came to power for the third time with a clear majority under Nawaz Sharif’s leadership. However, Sharif’s tenure was marred by controversy, and he was removed from office in 2017 due to corruption allegations, subsequently facing imprisonment alongside his daughter Maryam.
Following Nawaz’s removal, his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, a former chief minister of Punjab, assumed the role of prime minister in 2022 after the PML-N, in alliance with the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), ousted Imran Khan’s government in a vote of no-confidence. Shehbaz, known for his energetic approach to infrastructure projects, faced challenges during his brief tenure, including hyperinflation and protests led by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif’s return from exile in the UK sparked speculation about his political future. Despite facing multiple corruption charges, his recent acquittal and the perceived support from the military establishment and judiciary have bolstered his prospects for a potential fourth term as prime minister. Nawaz’s stance on India, emphasizing peace and normalization of relations, has garnered attention, particularly given his track record of seeking rapprochement with India during previous tenures. His return to the political arena ahead of the 2024 elections has injected further uncertainty into Pakistan’s political landscape, with the PML-N remaining a frontrunner despite challenges from rival parties. As the nation awaits the electoral outcome, Nawaz Sharif’s political resurgence reflects the enduring influence of the PML-N and its role in shaping Pakistan’s political trajectory.
PTI – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), founded by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and currently led by Gohar Ali Khan, occupies a prominent position in Pakistani politics with its center-right leaning. Imran Khan’s ascent to power in the 2018 elections marked a significant turning point, portraying him as a beacon of change and promising to address issues ranging from corruption to economic reform.
However, Khan’s tenure faced tumultuous challenges. Despite initially enjoying support from the military establishment, Khan’s relationship with them soured, leading to his unprecedented ousting from office via a parliamentary no-confidence vote. Khan’s subsequent accusations of conspiracies involving the United States, the military, and political rivals added to the political turmoil.
The PTI’s popularity endured despite these setbacks, with Khan’s charismatic leadership and anti-corruption stance resonating among a significant portion of the populace. However, his government’s handling of the economy, curtailment of media freedoms, and controversial policies, such as the peace deal with the Pakistani Taliban, drew criticism. Khan’s incarceration on corruption charges further intensified political tensions, sparking protests and internal rifts within the PTI. The party’s electoral symbol, the cricket bat, was revoked, posing challenges in communicating with its predominantly illiterate voter base.
Despite these obstacles, the PTI remains a formidable force in Pakistani politics, with a committed voter base and continued support for Khan’s vision of change. As the country approaches the upcoming elections, the PTI faces hurdles in campaigning and electoral representation, yet its enduring popularity underscores its significance in shaping Pakistan’s political landscape.
Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)
The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), a center-left political entity led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari alongside his father, Asif Ali Zardari, is striving to reclaim power for the first time since 2008.
Founded by his maternal grandfather, former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and subsequently led by his mother, two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, at 35 years old, steps into the political arena with significant familial legacy. Bhutto Zardari’s manifesto and campaign pivot towards engaging with the youth and addressing climate change, signaling a departure from traditional PPP policies.
His stance on India has been contentious, with criticism directed at Indian policies and leadership.Analysts speculate on Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s ability to navigate relations with India, considering his family’s historical anti-India stance dating back to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s era.
As the Oxford-educated scion of the Bhutto-Zardari dynasty, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari inherits a party that secured third place in the last election. Despite unlikely prospects of outright victory, PPP’s manifesto pledges and political maneuvering position it as a potential kingmaker in future governing alliances.
Free and fair Elections?
The forthcoming elections in Pakistan have sparked significant apprehension regarding their transparency and fairness. Doubts loom large over the credibility of the electoral process, highlighting the imperative for free, fair, and peaceful elections. Concerns are exacerbated by the potential for military interference to sway the ballot in favor of certain parties, amplifying anxieties about the integrity of the electoral system.
Pakistan’s electoral framework is often deemed “partly free,” operating within a hybrid governance structure that encompasses both military and civilian authorities, with no elected prime minister having completed a full term. The influence of the military and a track record of electoral irregularities have engendered widespread concerns among both domestic and international observers regarding the integrity of Pakistan’s electoral practices.
Amidst apprehensions about the credibility of the electoral process, the imperative for free, fair, and peaceful elections looms large. The eyes of the nation, and indeed the world, are fixed on Pakistan as it navigates the complexities of democracy in a volatile region. As the nation embarks on this democratic exercise, the resilience of its institutions and the resolve of its citizens will be put to the test, shaping the course of Pakistan’s future for years to come.
