Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia is highly significant, marking his third consecutive term. Similarly, Vladimir Putin, the strongman of Russia, has been elected for the fifth consecutive term. The results of the meeting between these two influential leaders is highly anticipated, reflecting the strength and continuity of their respective leaderships.

India-Russia are Natural Allies 

The Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971 made India and Russia de facto allies. In 2000, Putin’s visit to India initiated a strategic partnership, leading to annual summits. However, there was a disruption in 2020, officially due to COVID-19. Yet, some suggest it was due to Russia’s discomfort with the Indo-Pacific and the Quad, which includes Russia’s traditional rivals, the USA and Japan. This disruption led many to believe that India-Russia relations were in crisis.

Reaffirmation of Partnership

In 2021, during the 21st annual summit, Putin’s visit to India reaffirmed the partnership with the signing of 28 agreements. Prime Minister Modi has often emphasized Russia’s crucial role in India’s nation-building. Similarly, India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, has described India-Russia relations as a constant amidst turbulent geopolitics. The word that best defines India-Russia relations is “steady.” If China-Pakistan relations are all-weather, India-Russia relations are long-standing and steady.

Underlying Concerns

Despite this steadiness, there are underlying concerns. For instance, Putin’s new foreign policy in 2023 describes India as an essential partner. However, his description of China as a “no limit” partner and “brothers forever” is troubling. The growing closeness between Russia and Pakistan is another concern. Even during the Cold War, Russia courted Pakistan, but Pakistan allied with the US and China. Post-Cold War, Russia entered a secret defense military partnership with Pakistan, conducting military exercises and providing offensive weapons such as Mi-35 helicopters. Russia is also investing in Pakistan’s energy sector.

China’s Influence on Russia

China’s growing influence over Russia is another issue. Russia’s dependency on China, exacerbated by US sanctions, impacts India’s security. Russia supplies advanced weapons like the Su-35 and S-400 to China, raising security concerns for India.

Key Issues for Discussion

During Prime Minister Modi’s visit, several crucial issues must be addressed. Trade between India and Russia has increased, but the trade balance heavily favors Russia. With a trade deficit with China at around $87 billion, the deficit with Russia is reaching $61 billion. The Prime Minister needs to address this imbalance and explore ways to increase imports. Additionally, the rupee-rouble crisis is a pressing issue. This payment mechanism, disrupted by US sanctions, has left many Indian rupees stuck in Vostro accounts, forcing trade settlements in Chinese currency, which India wants to avoid. India and Russia must find a solution to this problem.

Security Concerns

Another critical question is the delivery of the remaining S-400s, vital for India’s security amidst a deteriorating security environment. The Russia-China partnership’s growing strength makes this even more urgent. Prime Minister Modi should seek clarity on this issue.

Uncomfortable Questions

There are also uncomfortable questions that need addressing. For instance, Russia’s silence during the Galwan Valley clash between India and China. Additionally, Russia’s invitation to Pakistan to join the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is concerning. Pakistan’s animosity towards India and refusal to grant transit rights complicates matters. Prime Minister Modi should question how this decision aligns with the India-Russia partnership.

https://test.inpactimes.com/prime-minister-narendra-modi-to-visit-russia-first-in-five-years/: PM Modi to meet Putin in Russia; What are the Agendas in line ?

Way forward 

As this visit unfolds, the hope is that the special and privileged partnership between India and Russia will be reaffirmed and strengthened. Prime Minister Modi’s visit aims to ensure India’s security concerns are addressed and to remind Russia of the importance of this relationship. With no annual summits in 2022 and 2023 due to the Ukraine war, India’s position has been to support Russia by abstaining from Western resolutions while condemning actions like the Bucha massacre. The constant threat of nuclear weapon use by President Putin also looms large.

Let us see what unfolds from this visit, hoping that the two friends understand and reinforce their privileged partnership, addressing all security concerns and giving it substantive meaning.