PM Modi’s ‘Two Digits’ Dream: Will it Change Kerala’s Political Landscape?

Does Modi have a chance in Kerala?

Kerala also known as God’s own country always keeps God away from politics turned to the Loksabha poll on April 26, and registered 71.27 per cent voter turnout, according to the Election Commission of India. Out of the total 20 Lok Sabha seats, 19,777,478 voted out of 27,749,158 voters in the state on April 26. Among these, 9,475,090 were male voters, 10, 302, 238 were female voters, and 150 were transgender voters, Chief Electoral Officer Sanjay Kaul said in a statement.

The state started voting at 7 am to decide the fate of 20 MP seats in the fray for the Lok Sabha elections. Kerala witnessed a large number of voters queueing close to the closing time of 6 pm. Consequently, Polling officials issued tokens to voters, who were in the line and voting continued at 10 pm at several booths across the state. Data shows a sharp decrease in voter turnout, from the 77.84 per cent polling rate recorded during the 2019 Parliament election to 70.8 per cent, indicating a reduction of 7.04 percentage points. Several factors including the escalating temperature and the huge number of people living and working abroad, have led to the lower turnout in the Lok Sabha election.

According to ECI, the polling percentage in all constituencies are:  Thiruvananthapuram (66.47), Attingal (69.48), Kollam (68.15), Mavelikkara (65.95), Pathanamthitta (63.37), Alappuzha (75.05), Kottayam (65.61), Idukki (66.55), Ernakulam (68.29), Chalakudy (71.94), Thrissur (72.90), Palakkad (73.57), Alathur (73.42), Ponnani (69.34), Malappuram (72.95), Kozhikode (75.52), Vadakara(78.41), Wayanad (73.57), Vadakara (78.41), Kannur (77.21) and Kasaragod (76.04).

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What is the political landscape of Kerala in the Parliament election?

 Kerala is the most literate state in the country, Dominated by mainly two political alliances, namely Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front) CPM-led LDF (Left Democratic Front), and another side BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Front) have been struggling to get a ground in Kerala’s politics. With the historical trend of the Lok sabha election in the state since 1984, Congress-led UDF won majority MP seats, except the parliament election held in 2004, where CPM-led LDF won by the majority.

In the last Lok Sabha election held in 2019, Kerala witnessed the congress-led UDF storm in the state by winning 19 seats out of 20 as a result of congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s entry to Wayanad and claimed by the congress party throughout the state that ‘Rahul Gandhi will be the next PM of India’, following the effect the Left party lost its ground set and secured only one seat in the election, Meanwhile, the NDA led by BJP could not win at least one seat, and saffron alliance secured 13 percentage vote share followed by the increase of 2.87 percentage compared to the general election held in 2014.

Image source: NDTV

Why did Kerala reject Modi’s saffron party?

 Kerala is one of the states in India, where historically the BJP has never won a single MP seat. The state also known as God’s own country always keeps God away from politics. According to Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP),  There are 5,142 ‘shakhas’ of the RSS in the state and the Density of RSS shakhas in Kerala is more than in heartland states, where BJP has a stronghold. Secular and leftist propaganda, demography, unchangeable and battlement vote share of CPM-led LDF and Congress-led UDF are major factors of BJP’s slow growth in Kerala. However, it has seen a steady rise in voter support for BJP, from 1.75 per cent in 1984 to 13 per cent in 2019.

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PM Modi claims of BJP will get two digits from Kerala

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kerala more than five times during the election campaign and expressed his hope of opening an account for Bjp in the state. that the BJP would win double-digit seats from Kerala in the upcoming general elections, said the PM  Addressing the BJP worker’s rally in Trivandrum on February 28. ‘This time, the BJP-led NDA will win two-digit seats from Kerala. The Opposition parties have realized their defeat in the elections of 2024. They lost mental balance. They don’t know a road map for the country’s development. Their main agenda is to utter abuse against Modi. surely Kerala will stand with BJP this time,” he said.

Photo credit: PTI

 Meanwhile, the senior congress leader Shashi Tharoor mocked the PM’s claim. ‘Actually,  the BJP does not understand Kerala, its culture, or its history. that the only way the BJP could achieve such a feat in the southern state would be by obtaining two zeros’ said the Trivandrum MP. In response to Modi’s dream to win double digits in the state, the chief minister of Kerala Pinrayi Vijayan said, ‘That the BJP will win two digits in upcoming LS polls, but it will be two Zero digits’.

BJP’s eyes on Trivandrum and Thrissur seats

 BJP in Kerala, Contesting from all LS seats and expected to win Trivandrum and Thrissur constituencies. In this Election, these two constituencies are emerging as focal points for BJP’s electoral strategy, in Trivandrum, NDA candidate and Cabinet minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar battling against prominent Congress leader Shashi Tharoor and CPI candidate Panniyan Raveendran. NDA finished second place with a vote share of 31 per cent in the 2019 election and this time NDA dreaming first place.

After the poll conducted on April 26, BJP’s preliminary Lok Sabha election review report was released and claimed that the NDA candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar would win by a minimum of 15,000 votes adding 60,000 votes to the last election. The party analysis of the Contest between Rajeev and sitting MP Tharoor was neck to neck, and the triumph is credited to Rajeev.  The left candidate will finish third place according to BJP’s preliminary review report.

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Thrissur is the second seat BJP is counting on, According to BJP’s preliminary review report, the NDA candidate and well-known actor Suresh Gopi will win by a margin of 30,000 votes. BJP seems to be more confident of Suresh Gopi’s win from Thrissur compared to Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram.

As per the election review report, The NDA candidate majority may go beyond one lakh. The Karuvannur Cooperative Bank money scam and PM Modi’s election campaigns also helped the BJP, the report said. However, The UDF leaders and LDF leaders in the state confidently said that NDA is not going to win a single seat and does not open an account linked to Kerala’s political nature and Secular agenda.

What shows pre-poll surveys?

Pre-poll surveys carried out by various media outlets showed a clear lead for the Congress-led UDF in the Lok Sabha polls in Kerala. Out of 20 MP seats, UDF will win around 16 seats and LDF will secure 4, and the BJP-led NDA does not open an account in the states, according to pre-poll surveys of various media outlets. The UDF may triumph in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Alathur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Ponnani, Wayanad, Attingal and Kasaragod constituencies. Vadakara, Kannur, Alathur, and Palakkad may win by LDF, according to surveys. The BJP-led NDA anticipates a surge in vote share,  surpassing 20% compared to 14% in the last general election, and envisions the BJP-led coalition securing second place in many constituencies.