Introduction
Tamil Nadu was the state where the first regional party government was formed by DMK in 1967 under the leadership of C.N. Annadurai. Tamil Nadu politics is dominated by Dravida ideology, which aims to achieve social equality. Here Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) are the two major dominant regional parties, and since 1967 the government at the state level has been formed by these two regional parties alternatively.
At present DMK led by MK Stalin along with Congress, CPI (M) and others as Alliance partners has been ruling the state since 2021. there seem to be 4 corned fights in Tamil Nadu between the DMK-led alliance, NDA, AIADMK, and other small parties In the Lok Sabha 2024 elections. Let’s have a brief look at the prospects of these alliances in Tamil Nadu politics.
Prospects of DMK led alliance in Tamil Nadu
IMAGE SOURCE- NDTV
Secular Progressive Alliance SPA part of I.N.D.I.A bloc led by DMK along with Congress, CPI, CPI (M), and other allies Swept the 2019 elections by winning 38 seats out of 39 against the National Democratic Alliance of AIADMK and BJP who won only 1 seat. At present, in 2024 the SPA alliance is looking solid, and one round of meetings on seat sharing has also been done.
It is more likely that SPA may follow the same 2019 seat-sharing formulae, i.e., out of 39, 20 seats may be given to DMK, 9 to Congress, 2 seats each to CPI, CPI(M), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), one seat to Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam MDMK (though the party is demanding one more seat for Durai Vaiko the son of party founder), one to Indian Muslim Union League (IUML), one to Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK). Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK) has left the alliance and joined hands with NDA so 1 seat is left. Kamal Hassan may likely join hands with DMK and may contest Lok Sabha polls.
Prospects of NDA in Tamil Nadu
Technically speaking, there’s hardly any tangible presence of NDA in Tamil Nadu. Erstwhile members of NDA, includes AIADMK which has left the alliance. Pattali Makkal katchi (PMK), Tamil Manila Congress (TMC), and others have not yet decided, about whether they will be in alliance or not. There’s a small section within the BJP that wants an alliance with AIADMK but state BJP president K. Annamalai is reluctant to have any reconciliation with AIADMK. For the last 5 years, the South Indian state where the BJP has most hardly worked is Tamil Nadu. The party is strongly working in the state to establish its cadre.
IMAGE SOURCE- THE NEW INDIAN EXPRESS
Prime Minister Modi’s frequent visits to Tamil Nadu, placing of the Sengol in the new Parliament building or its Kashi Tamil Sangam, BJP is trying hard to mark his presence in the state’s political Arena. It’s gossip in the political circles of Delhi that in the 2024 Loksabha elections Prime Minister Modi May contest from the Kanyakumari seat of Tamil Nadu. BJP won no seats and got merely 3.66% of the total votes in 2019. in such a situation will the Prime Minister be taking such a risk to contest from Tamil Nadu?
Prospects AIADMK and Other parties
IMAGE SOURCE- MONEY CONTROL
It has been 4 months since AIADMK left the NDA alliance but is not able to find any ally, the party is aiming that some of the DMK partners would come to their side, but it has not been fructified yet. the party chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami (E.P.S.) has already made a statement that there will be no alliance with the BJP in the 2026 state assembly elections. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are very important for the party because of its continuous loss in the 2019 and 2021 Lok Sabha and assembly elections respectively has given a major setback to the party. Also, the party will be aiming to intact its vote percentage in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) is headed by film director Seeman. The party has grown significantly in the last few years. Since 2016 party has been contesting elections independently. In 2024 party may fight elections on all 39 seats.
Conclusion
Though Alliance formations are still in progress, As of now we can sense that in the upcoming Lok Sabha election of 2024, there will be a four-cornered fight in Tamil Nadu. As the BJP is at saturation point in North Indian states, the party is expecting something good from Tamil Nadu. Senior BJP leader and former Chief Minister of Karnataka Basavaraj Bommai made a statement that there’s a ‘Modi wave all over India and results from South India will be very surprising’.
It will be interesting to watch if the will BJP be able to increase its graph in state politics, or if the DMK-led alliance will repeat its 2019 performance. It may be possible that AIADMK may surprise us all. still, two months are left for the elections, and in politics even a week is enough to change the outcome.
