As Ukraine launched its unprecedented invasion into Russian territory, Moscow remained blissfully unaware, showcasing an alarming lack of preparedness and surveillance. The Russian defense ministry, focused on celebrating recent victories, failed to anticipate the bold move, revealing a critical intelligence and readiness failure that shifted the war’s dynamics overnight.
In the early hours of Aug. 6, Ukrainian forces executed an unexpected and unprecedented attack on Russia’s western border, catching Moscow off guard and raising questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s surveillance and border defences
At midnight, the Russian Defense Ministry posted an update celebrating the heroism of more than 2,500 soldiers who had participated in the capture of a town in eastern Ukraine. Just hours later, Ukraine launched its most significant invasion of Russian territory since World War II.
The Defense Ministry’s focus remained on a video of Gen. Valery Gerasimov visited a combat zone in Ukraine depicting him receiving reports from commanders and outlining “tasks for further actions” apparently unaware of the events unfolding in Russia’s Kursk region.
The video did not disclose when the visit took place, nor did it hint at any awareness of the unfolding crisis in Russia’s western Kursk region that could disrupt Gerasimov’s strategy and alter the trajectory of the ongoing war.
Rapid Panic and Misinformation in Kursk
Despite multiple reassurances from officials, panic quickly spread among Russian residents as the incursion began, according to a Reuters timeline based on public statements, social media posts, and video analysis.
The idea that Ukraine could reverse the situation and invade Russian territory was unimaginable to most observers before last week. The operation has prompted scrutiny of Russia’s surveillance capabilities, the strength of its border defences, and the readiness of the troops stationed there.
French Expert Highlights Russian Intelligence Failures
“The Russians experienced a complete intelligence breakdown,” said Yohann Michel, a French military expert and research fellow at the IESD institute in Lyon, in an interview.
With Ukrainian forces pulling back in eastern Ukraine, one of the most strategically vital sectors of the front line, Moscow may have believed Kyiv wouldn’t risk a high-stakes move—one that still has an uncertain outcome, Michel noted.
“I can understand why the Russians might have found it hard to believe that something of this scale could occur,” he said.
Russian Defense Ministry’s Delayed Acknowledgment of the Incursion
Ukraine’s objectives in Kursk include diverting Russian troops from the front line in the eastern Donetsk region. However, fighting has escalated there in recent days, increasing the risks for Ukraine as it attempts to maintain its position in Kursk.
Andrei Gurulyov, a Russian member of parliament and former military officer, revealed in a television interview two days after the incursion that Russian military leaders had been alerted about potential Ukrainian attack preparations about a month earlier, but the warning was ignored.
The Russian defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Ukraine’s armed forces also declined to comment on the ongoing operations, and the U.S. State Department, Pentagon, and White House did not immediately answer inquiries.
It wasn’t until the afternoon of the following day, Aug. 7, that President Vladimir Putin and his armed forces chief of staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, made their first public statements on the events in Kursk, with Putin describing them as “another major provocation” by Ukraine.
Governor Smirnov’s Inconsistent Statements and Response Efforts
After returning from his poorly timed visit, Gen. Valery Gerasimov informed President Vladimir Putin in a televised statement that Russian forces had “stopped” a Ukrainian force of up to 1,000 soldiers from advancing deep into the Kursk region.
Yohann Michel, a military analyst, questioned whether Gerasimov had been misinformed by his subordinates or if he felt obligated to present positive news to Putin during the broadcast. Russian officials in such situations “say what they think the boss wants to hear or see in public at that specific moment,” Michel said.
Ukrainian Strategy: Diversion and Surprises
It took nearly 12 hours after the incursion began—reported by Gerasimov to have started at 5:30 a.m. on Aug. 6—for the Russian defense ministry to acknowledge that Ukraine had not only attacked the border but breached it. In the meantime, it fell to Kursk’s acting regional governor, Alexei Smirnov, who had only been in the job for a few months, to step into the communications void and attempt to coordinate with the various defense and security agencies responsible for border protection.
Smirnov’s first of many Telegram posts on Aug. 6 included missile warnings at 1:51 and 3:11 a.m., advising residents to take shelter. At 3:15 a.m., he reported that air defenses had intercepted three Ukrainian drones, and at 6:16 a.m., another 11.
While border regions had grown accustomed to missile and drone exchanges, the strikes against Kursk, as documented by Smirnov, had been unusually persistent for the previous 10 days. Targets included oil depots, power substations, and, according to Ukrainian military reports, a weapons and military equipment storage facility.
By around 5 a.m., alarm began to spread on social media, with locals reporting shelling in Sudzha, a Russian border town, that had lasted for three hours. “What’s going on with the lights? I’ve got no light or water,” posted a user named “Ekaterina Picasa.” Another user, Denis, reported nine explosions in Korenevo, about 16 miles from the border.
Reuters attempted to contact residents via social media, but the efforts were either ignored or blocked.
Messages began appearing in “Native Sudzha,” a community channel on VKontakte, though it was unclear if they came from official sources. One message at 7:34 a.m. advised residents to leave the town and warned them to beware of drones and unexploded ordnance.
By 8:15 a.m., Native Sudzha was reporting “active fighting on the border itself.” However, a widely followed Russian war blog downplayed the situation. The “Two Majors” Telegram channel, with over a million followers, claimed that a small group of “the enemy” had only penetrated 300 meters into Russia and was being “destroyed,” suggesting the operation was merely a staged media event by Ukrainian “TikTok units.”
Concerns Over Russia’s Border Fortifications and Corruption
Ukraine’s government has released little information about the planning of the incursion. In May, shortly after Russian forces crossed the border and captured territory in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief publicly warned of small groups of Russian troops gathering around the Sudzha area, stating that Moscow planned an operation into Ukraine’s Sumy region from there. Reuters could not independently verify whether Russia had indeed been preparing an offensive into Sumy.
On Friday, Ukraine’s paratrooper corps said its fighters spent the first hours of the operation demining, breaching the border, and destroying defensive lines with the support of aviation and artillery. The Airborne Assault Troops described “careful preparation, planning, surprise, fighting spirit, and informational silence” as decisive factors in the initial stage of the operation.
Dmytro, a 36-year-old Ukrainian soldier, said he initially believed the troop buildup was intended to prevent a Russian cross-border raid. Instead, he found himself supporting the advance toward the border crossing near Sudzha after the assault units moved in. “We worked to pre-empt them, and they did not see this coming at all,” he said in an interview, providing only his first name in accordance with military protocol.
The Impact of Poorly Manned and Underprepared Defenses
Around 10 a.m., Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov confirmed for the first time that Ukraine had attempted an incursion but claimed that Russian soldiers and FSB border guards had “prevented” a breach of the border. This was the first of many statements that would soon be disproved by unfolding events.
Just before noon, the defense ministry released video footage of Gen. Valery Gerasimov visiting Russian forward positions in Ukraine, but remained silent on the situation in Kursk. The Kremlin also provided no immediate updates, as spokesman Dmitry Peskov was on a summer break, leaving reporters without his usual daily briefing. As of Aug. 16, 10 days later, Peskov had not returned to work.
“Tell me please, is it true that Ukrainian tanks have broken through to Sudzha and Darino?” a user named “Nestik” posted on Telegram.
Smirnov responded by saying that assistance was being provided to residents in areas hit by missiles and drones. “The situation is under control,” he wrote at 12:46 p.m.
About an hour later, Russian news agencies released the first official word from central authorities about the situation. The FSB reported that Russia had “repelled an armed provocation.”
Despite these assurances, an exodus had begun. “Sudzha residents are leaving en masse,” a woman named Anna said on Telegram. “Of course. Everyone wants to live,” someone replied.
In the chaos, some were left behind. The search network Liza Alert has posted over 100 “missing” notices for people who have disappeared since Aug. 6, many of them elderly pensioners in their 70s and 80s.
Shared Responsibility for Border Defense
Roman Starovoit, Smirnov’s predecessor as governor, had repeatedly assured the public that Russia had bolstered its border fortifications in the Kursk region. In December 2022, Starovoit posed beside pyramid-shaped “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank defenses in a snowy field. The following month, he wrote, “Right now the risk of an armed invasion of the territory of the Kursk region from Ukraine is not high. However, we are constantly working to strengthen the region’s defense capabilities.”
Yet, last fall, Ukraine’s National Resistance Center, created by special operations forces, claimed in an online post that reconnaissance revealed “almost all the strongholds are deserted of personnel and equipment” along the border with Kursk, attributing it to corruption.
Video published by Ukraine’s paratroopers showed columns of armored vehicles moving through rows of dragon’s teeth, part of the fortifications in Kursk that Russian media outlets reported had cost 15 billion rubles ($168 million).
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Finland’s Black Bird Group, observed that the video appeared to show mine-clearing line charges blasting paths through minefields, dozer blades on armored vehicles clearing paths through the dragon’s teeth, and bridging vehicles crossing ditches and small rivers. “It’s clear that substantial amounts of different engineer equipment were prepared and used,” said Paroinen, who studies publicly available footage from the Russia-Ukraine war.
Brady Africk, a U.S. analyst mapping Russia’s defenses, noted that those in the Kursk region had fewer anti-vehicle ditches, obstacles, and fighting positions compared to Russian positions in occupied southern Ukraine, where a Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled last summer. “It was likely easier for Ukrainian forces to progress around and through Russia’s fortifications in the region, especially if they were manned by fewer or poorly trained personnel,” he said.
Coordination Challenges: Shared Responsibility for Border Defense
Responsibility for defending the Russian border is divided among regular troops, FSB border forces, and the national guard. Governor Smirnov was likely referring to these various agencies when he said in the mid-afternoon of the first day that he had met with “representatives of the security structures.”
Already, he was backtracking from his initial claim that they had prevented the border from being pierced. “The situation in the border area remains difficult, but our defenders are successfully working to destroy the enemy,” Smirnov said.
At 5:05 p.m., the defense ministry acknowledged the incursion for the first time, stating that Russia had transferred reserves to the area. “Troops covering the state border, together with units of the border troops of the FSB of Russia, are repelling the attacks and inflicting fire on the enemy in the area of the state border and on its reserves in the Sumy region (of Ukraine),” it said.
In an Aug. 7 briefing, Gerasimov assured Putin, “The operation will end with the smashing of the enemy, and (Russian forces) reaching the state border.”
Ten days later, with more than 100,000 Russians displaced and Ukraine claiming control of over 1,000 square kilometers (390 square miles) of the Kursk region, Moscow’s forces are still far from achieving that goal.
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