The 2024 is the year of elections in India. The 18th Lok Sabha elections will be held in April-May of this year. But the battleground is already set. With the decisive victory in the recent assembly election of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh BJP is going with a psychological advantage. whereas on the other hand, congress is focusing entirely on Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra and making it the main agenda for its 2024 election campaign. in the 2019 general election, BJP and its alliance almost swept the north Indian states and managed to win more than 2/3rd of the seats.
image source: Jagran Josh
Battleground of Uttar Pradesh in 2024
Uttar Pradesh is the most important state as it consist the highest number of Lok Sabha seats i.e. 80. In the last two elections, the BJP-led NDA had done a splendid performance by winning 71 and 62 seats out of 80 in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections respectively. Samajwadi Party is the leading opposition party in Uttar Pradesh, for the 2024 elections SP allied with Congress and RLD. But there are several discrepancies between SP and Congress over sharing of seats, also Nitish’s exit from India block and Mamata’s announcement to contest the election independently in Bengal have already shattered the hopes of opposition unity before the elections. BJP is all set to pick up the Consecration of Ram Mandir Temple, double engine government Labarthe factor, and law & order as its major issue for elections. Whereas the Samajwadi party is making PDA i.e. “pichre” (meaning backward), Dalit and “alpashankhak” (meaning minority), unemployment, poverty, and farmer’s as its main issue for the 2024 elections. It’s tough to predict but As of now, BJP is looking in a more comfortable position in Uttar Pradesh because it has a strong face of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Nobody knows what happens in politics, it will be very interesting to watch the battle of 2024 in Uttar Pradesh.
Battleground of Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2024
Together these three states constitute 65 Lok Sabha seats out of which 61 were won by BJP in the 2019 elections. these three core Hindi heartland states are known as laboratory of BJP. An interesting point in the 2019 election was that BJP’s vote share in these three states was more than 50%. The victory of the BJP in recent Assembly Elections in these three states will give the BJP an added advantage in Lok Sabha elections. Hindutva factor along with Labarthe will play an important role in these three states. I believe the x factor for BJP in these 3 states is the “Mahila vote” which proved to be very decisive in BJP’s victory in recent Assembly elections. There is a direct contest between BJP and Congress in these States. major reason for poor performance of Congress is that it’s not able to provide an alternative narrative to the public, it is still dealing with its internal problem. With a generational shift in leadership in these 3 states Congress may hope for a good contest.
Battleground of Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand in 2024
Together these four states constitute 45 Lok Sabha seats of which in the last 2019 Lok Sabha election BJP swept the area by winning all the 45 Lok Sabha. And the opposition was completely wiped out.
Gujarat is the home state of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah in the last two elections of Lok Sabha in 2014 and 2019 BJP won all 26 seats. There is no doubt that it is the fortress of BJP and RSS. The same results are being expected in upcoming Lok Sabha polls, after the BJP’s landslide victory in the Gujarat legislative assembly election of 2022.
In Haryana BJP had won all 10 seats in the last elections but this time it seems it would be difficult for the BJP to repeat its performance because of the farmer’s protest of 2022, the wrestler’s protest of 2023, and 10 years of anti-incumbency of the Khattar government.
Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are also strong Forts of BJP. In Himachal, Pradesh Congress may hope to gain some seats because of its incumbent Sikhu government, but still, Prime Minister Modi remains the favorite amongst all. BJP may likely repeat it’s performance in Uttarakhand
Battleground of Delhi and Punjab
The national capital territory of Delhi consists of 7 Lok Sabha seats out of which Bhartiya Janata Party secured a decisive victory on all seven seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections respectively. Since 2013 the NCT Delhi has been ruled by Aam Aadmi Party under the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal. The party had also won the MCD elections of 2022.AAP is very optimistic about its good performance in Lok Sabha as it’s fighting elections this time as a national party, and after the victory of Punjab and Delhi cadre of party is strengthened.
The only North Indian state where Congress has performed very well in 2019 is Lok Sabha by winning 8 seats out of 13. But the politics of Punjab in the last 5 years has changed drastically. Sidelining all the leading parties, people of Punjab in the 2022 assembly election voted for Aam Aadmi Party, who had won the elections with 2/3rd of the majority. It was the first time in the history of Indian politics that any regional party has formed a government in two states. There is a triangular fight in Punjab between the Aam Aadmi Party Congress and Akali dal . If Congress and AAP fight together under the banner of the I.N.D.I.A alliance it will bring them to the driving seat. The political equation in Punjab is very interesting to watch out for in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Conclusion
Together these nine States and NCT of Delhi constitute 210 Lok Sabha seats. Out of which BJP won 177 seats, which clearly showed the dominance of BJP in north and north western India . the 2019 elections were held in the backdrop of the Balakot strike which has stimulated the BJP’s aggressive nationalist election campaign. the 2024 elections are to be held under different circumstances; this time the led NDA government will face 10 years of anti-incumbency. Consecration of the Ram Temple has provided a solid launch pad for the BJP to kick-start its election campaign, the opposition is also trying to build the narrative of caste and Mandal politics. it will be very interesting to watch who will catch the voters of North India, will the BJP be able to repeat its performance or opposition be able to revive its lost ground, remains the big question?
