On 20th January, 2025, Donald J. Trump would assume office as the President of the United State, development is assured to shape the South Korea-U.S. relationship amidst ongoing tensions and the rising dominance Chinese naval fleet in the Indo-Pacific region. As the second term is likely to bring shift in the alliance, particularly in these three areas: North Korea policy, host-nation support for U.S. troop, and the approach to China. While the South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol has emphasized and focused on restricting North Korea, but Trump’s preference for personal diplomacy and engagement with Kim Jong Un could cause distinction.
North Korea Policy:
The policy is likely to become a major point of contention between Trump and Yoon Suk-yeol. Yoon firmly stance on containment and demanding verifiable steps toward denuclearization before off sanctions relief or economic aid to Pyongyang. While trump has historically favored engagement with Kim Jong Un and even suspending military exercises to foster dialogue. If trump returns to office, his willingness to negotiate with North Korea for nuclear freeze instead of full denuclearization could create rift in the South Korea- U.S alliance. While his policy of host-nation support for US troop would frustrate countries including South Korea.
Host-Nation Support
The Host nation support for U.S troops stationed in South Korea could led to tensions under Trump second term. During is his first term as stance for America First approach which aimed to shift more of defense burden into U.S. allies for foreign military stations. While trumped demanded huge financial contribution from allies including South Korea contributed willing of 400 percentage increased cost for US stationed troops in Korean peninsula.
This cause more financial responsibilities and struggled to balance with domestic and regional priorities. The President Yoon Suk-yeol has emphasized the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and willingness to contribute more toward shared defense cost, while ahead of future President Yoon is negotiating a revised cost-sharing agreement with Biden administration. Will President Yoon be willing to spend for U.S. troops stationed in Korean peninsula or focus on domestic priorities?
Approach toward China:
If Trump is re-elected, the differences between the US and South Korea could become most glaring with respect to their relationship with China. While the Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was able to navigate Korea’s relations with China, while the economy is taken care of, the security partnership with the US and Japan has been strengthened, and Trump’s policies towards China have been relatively more aggressive. Yoon has been cautious not to curtail Chinese access to semiconductors and hopes that while China interacts with the West with aggression, China as a country can still be kept in good terms with.
On the other hand, Trump is one of the many who believe that such measures should be adopted, prioritizing America’s interests, such as elevating tariffs on Chinese goods or practicing economic dependence. Calling the revitalization of the US Navy through the commissioning of 350 ships to offset China’s advancing naval dominance already shows the willingness and aggressive change.
With the US ambitions rising, South Korea seems to have a tough job of balancing out its trade and economic relations with China and then aligning itself with the US on defense. Chinese relations with the US become complicated, and the United States behaves aggressively; that’s only going to worsen the situation between the US and South Korea, growing the alliance with however employing a way to achieve greater harmony between the acquired circle.
The South Korea-U.S. alliance is poised to witness dramatic transformations in view of Donald Trump’s presidency for a second term especially with regard to north Korea policy, host-nation support, and China’s policy. It is likely that there will be tensions because the US and its allies will have different ideas towards the denuclearization of the Korean state, the provision of monetary aid to US military forces, and the promotion of trade with China while being secure with the US. Even with these differences, the two countries have to learn to contain their differences in order to ensure there is no dissolution of the alliance in a complicated supranational arena
