ISTANBUL — What has been frozen for years, due to the Uyghur problem, now seems to enter a new phase of both diplomatic and economic cooperation between Turkey and China. Already, with recent meetings between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping, ties between the two nations have shown improvement, with possible state visits on the cards and heavy Chinese investments flowing into Turkey.
Diplomatic Engagements Pave the Way for Progress
The talks between Xi and Erdogan at the SCO summit in Kazakhstan were a milestone in their bilateral relationship. Xi said that China-Turkey relations have been able to sustain a “sound momentum of development,” a phrase which Erdogan backed upon his return to the U.S. summit and the headquarters of the organisation to which he is attached, NATO. He informed that Xi had proposed to pay an official visit to China later this year, while Erdogan invited Xi to Turkey—a visit that would be accepted and accomplished in 2025.
The diplomatic thaw followed a series of high-level engagements between the two nations. In June, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited China to meet top leaders Vice President Han Zheng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. But it was his visit to Xinjiang that made a real stir, after he became the highest-level Turkish official to do so since 2012. His comments on the region being a bridge between China and the Turkic and Islamic worlds elicited scant asides from Chinese officials, who instead focused on his endorsement of the “One China” policy.
Economic Cooperation Takes Center Stage
Beyond these diplomatic niceties, the economic dimension of relations between Turkey and China has really picked up. One such milestone is the announced $1 billion investment of Chinese EV manufacturer BYD in Turkey. With that deal, BYD will be the first foreign EV manufacturer in Turkey. The deal has been interpreted by some as a means for China to enter the lucrative EU market via Ankara’s customs union with the bloc. Erdogan underlined the fact that this investment was a clear proof of the political will of both countries to improve relations in all fields, especially commerce, tourism, and FDI.
Offsetting these positive developments, however, is the nagging issue of Turkey’s trade deficit with China. Ankara looks to attract more balanced investments from China, as the deficit comes in at over $40 billion. In that respect, Erdogan called for investments which would not be used as political leverage—clearly a cautious approach by Turkey. As it rolls out the red carpet for Chinese investments, Turkey has also been courting other Chinese EV manufacturers for cooperation and is engaging in nuclear and renewable energy projects with them.
Strategic Implications of Sino-Turkish Relations
But that has come at the same time that events elsewhere in the world raised global tension. Rising crises over Ukraine and Gaza, along with tense relations with the West and in particular NATO, have seen Ankara adopt a hedging strategy. “Pursuing a hedging strategy between big powers”, says Kadir Temiz from the National Intelligence Academy of Turkey, the country is developing relations with China while remaining committed to NATO.
The Uyghur problem, though, is still an obstacle in Sino-Turkish relations. While Erdogan softened his criticism over Beijing’s treatment of the Uyghurs, tensions still exist, particularly given Turkey’s refusal to hand over Uyghur dissidents wanted by Beijing. Also, the detention by Turkey in February of several people suspected of spying on behalf of China’s intelligence service for Uyghurs added a new dimension to the relationship.
One Marmara University professor, Cagdas Ungor, feels that recent investments and diplomatic engagements could forge a new stage in Sino-Turkish relations. She also puts forward the following word of caution: the relationship will continue being underlined by broader geopolitical dynamics, including Turkey’s position within NATO and with the West.
Unless Xi pays a visit to Turkey in 2025 and further investments are at stake, the future of Sino-Turkish relations is likely to be continued diplomatic maneuvering. Analysts will be bound to a careful observation of the way the handling of common interests and existing challenges by both nations flows.
