Maharashtra is one state where the political scenario has changed drastically since the last general elections of 2019. In the last Lok Sabha election, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (under Uddhav Thackrey) Alliance won 41 out of 48 seats against Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Congress Alliance, which won only five seats.
After the Lok Sabha election results and landmark victory of the BJP and NDA in Maharashtra and the entire country, many political pundits predicted a comfortable victory of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in the upcoming assembly elections. and similarly happened in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, which were held a few months after the general election, i.e., in October 2019. But the real story begins after the results of the assembly elections on October 29, 2019, and the entire political drama comes into play.
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Political drama of 2019 in Maharashtra
Out of 288 seats, the BJP Shiv Sena Alliance secured victory in 161 seats, followed by the NCP Congress Alliance in 98 and other parties (including independents, the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi, AIMIM, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, etc.). On 29 seats. The election results clearly showed that the BJP Shiv Sena Alliance, with a comfortable majority of 161, would form a government, but a twist happened in the story.
Shiv Sena declined the support of the BJP for the formation of the government and demanded rotational chief ministers for both parties for 2.5 years each, which the BJP had promised during the elections, as claimed by then Shiv Sena supremo Thackeray. Union Home Minister Amit Shah (then BJP President) had nullified all such claims. Subsequently, the Shiv Sena withdrew from the alliance. And the president’s rule was imposed in the state as no party was able to prove its majority in the house.
After the failure of the Maha-Yukti Alliance, A grand alliance was formed consisting of Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Indian National Congress, named Mahavikas Aghadi, of which Uddhav Thackeray was sworn in as chief minister on November 28, 2019. The government worked comfortably for the next 2.5 years, but a sudden twist happened, which has changed the dynamics of Maharashtra politics.
Split in Shiv Sena
In June 2022, a political crisis erupted in Shiv Sena, where the majority of MLAs under the leadership of Eknath Shinde quit the coalition and joined hands with the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP, which led to the fall of the Mahavikas Aghadi government. The Shinde faction of Shiv Sena alleged that Uddhav Thackrey got distracted from Shiv Sena Hindutva ideology, and as a result, their vote base was shrinking.
So, they decided to split from the alliance and form a government with the support of the BJP in the state. Eknath Shinde was sworn in as chief minister of this alliance on June 30, 2022. The Shinde faction also won a legal battle over the symbol and name of the party against the Uddhav Thackrey-led faction.
Split in NCP
image source- the leaflet
On similar grounds to the Shiv Sena split, the BJP executed the plan for an NCP split. In July 2023, Ajit Pawar, the nephew of party supremo Sharad Pawar, along with his supporters, left the NCP and joined hands with the ruling Shiv Sena (Shinde faction)-BJP government as a deputy chief minister. This led to a split within the NCP. Where one faction is led by Sharad Pawar, another faction is led by Ajit Pawar. Both of them claimed themselves as real NCPs and fought a legal battle for symbol and name. Finally, on February 7, 2024, the Election Commission of India awarded the party name and symbol to the section headed by Ajit Pawar.
Current scenario
Since July 2023, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction)-BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar’s faction) have been ruling the state. In the state, there are now two factions of Shiv Sena and NCP, one, i.e., Shinde and Ajit Pawar, respectively, with the BJP, and the other, led by Uddhav Thackrey, i.e., now the UBT, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, which is now the NCP (Sharad Chandra Pawar), with Congress. 2024 is a very important year for Maharashtra, as both Lok Sabha and assembly elections will be held this year.
The recent mood of the nation survey predicted a tough fight between the NDA (comprised of Shiv Sena (Shinde faction)-BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar’s faction) and the INDIA Bloc (comprised of Uddhav Sena, NCP (Sharad Chandra Pawar), and Congress). According to the survey, if elections are held in January 2024, then the predicted vote share of the India bloc would be 45% against the NDA’s 40% vote share. In terms of seat convertibility, the India bloc is expected to gain 26 seats and the NDA to gain 22 seats.
Conclusion
If we go with the mood of the nation survey, then there is no good sign for the BJP in the state of Maharashtra because the BJP-led NDA alliance is expected to lose around 19 seats from the last elections, even after all the political calculations and politics of the split. Whereas for the India block, there is some good news from Maharashtra, as it is expected to have significant gains from last time.
But still, it is a survey, and the big question remains the same: will the NCP (Sharad Chandra Pawar) and Uddhav Thackrey Shiv Sena be able to get sympathy from the voters because this time Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in the driving seat and his popularity in Maharashtra is unmatchable at this time? On which side the voter will turn in Maharashtra will be exciting to look out for.
