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UK: Early Thursday morning, May 30, the British Parliament was dissolved ahead of the highly anticipated general election on July 4. This election could potentially bring the Labour Party back to power after 14 years of Conservative rule. This dissolution marks the end of all parliamentary activities in both the House of Commons and the House of Lords, leaving every seat in the Commons vacant until after the general election on July 4, 2024. With the dissolution, all 650 parliamentary seats were declared vacant at one minute past midnight (2301 GMT), marking the official start of the campaign period.
A Shaky Start for the Conservatives
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the election date amidst a downpour cast a foreboding shadow over the Conservative campaign. Many saw the heavy rain as an ill omen, overshadowing Sunak’s strategic decision to call for an early election on July 4 instead of a later date. This move is an effort by Sunak to regain momentum for the Conservatives, who are currently lagging in the polls.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party, led by former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer, sees a significant opportunity to reclaim power after 14 years in opposition. Labour is capitalizing on the public’s growing discontent with the Conservatives, positioning themselves as a viable alternative in this crucial election.
Mass Exodus of MPs
The Conservative Party is grappling with significant challenges, notably a mass exodus of parliamentarians. With opinion polls indicating a strong lead for Labour, 129 MPs have declared they will not seek re-election. Among these, 77 are Conservatives, marking an unprecedented departure rate for a governing party.
Some Conservative candidates who are running for re-election have voiced their frustration over the unexpected election date. Steve Baker, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, chose to continue his vacation in Greece, intending to prepare his campaign from there. The internal strife within the party surfaced when a Tory MP backed a candidate from the right-wing populist Reform UK party in her constituency, resulting in her suspension by the Conservative Party.
Faltering Start for Sunak’s Campaign
Following the election announcement, Sunak embarked on a nationwide tour, promoting the Conservatives as the “safe” choice. However, his campaign faced early setbacks. A visit to the Titanic’s construction site sparked unflattering comparisons between his leadership and a sinking ship.
Sunak’s campaign has aimed to resonate with older voters and align with the interests of right-wing supporters. Promises include reintroducing national service and offering a £2.4 billion ($3 billion) tax break for pensioners. Despite these efforts, Sunak’s intense campaigning has not significantly boosted Conservative support.
Polls indicate that Labour is leading with an average of 45% of voting intentions compared to the Conservatives’ 23%. This suggests that under the simple-majority voting system, Labour is poised for a substantial victory.
In an attempt to shift the tide, Sunak hopes to gain ground in the upcoming debates with Keir Starmer, with the first debate scheduled for next Tuesday on ITV.
Labour’s Strategy and Challenges
Labour is leveraging public fatigue with the Conservative Party, which has seen five prime ministers since 2016 amidst numerous scandals and economic difficulties. Starmer’s strategy has been to reposition Labour as the “natural party of business,” recently gaining the endorsement of 120 industry leaders.
After a crushing defeat under left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, Starmer has moved the party towards the center, including purging Corbyn and addressing issues of anti-Semitism within the party. However, internal factional splits have resurfaced. MP Diane Abbott expressed her dissatisfaction with the party’s decision to bar her from candidacy, highlighting ongoing tensions.
Starmer has yet to decide Abbott’s fate, who was suspended last year over comments on racism. The treatment of Abbott, a highly respected MP with 37 years of service, has sparked significant criticism. Starmer also faces backlash from leftist voters accusing him of reneging on promises made during his leadership campaign.
Conclusion
As the campaign progresses, both parties are navigating internal and external challenges. The Conservatives are struggling to unite and regain public trust, while Labour is managing internal discord while attempting to present a unified front. The upcoming debates and campaign strategies will be crucial in determining the outcome of the July 4 general election.
