Navigating the Red Lines: U.S.-China Relations in Focus Amid Taiwan and South China Sea Tensions

In a significant move to stabilize U.S.-China relations, a Chinese military leader and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan agreed on Thursday to re-establish theater-level contact between their respective militaries. This comes amid ongoing tensions over Taiwan, which Beijing insists is a breakaway province that must return to Chinese control. Additionally, the South China Sea has become another focal point of contention, particularly involving the Philippines, adding another layer of complexity to U.S.-China relations.

During his visit to China, Sullivan met with Gen. Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission. Both sides acknowledged their responsibility to prevent competition from escalating into conflict. “The two sides reaffirmed the importance of regular military-to-military communications as part of efforts to maintain high-level diplomacy and open lines of communication,” the White House stated. This reflects a renewed commitment to dialogue after a turbulent period in bilateral relations.

In 2022, China had frozen high-level military talks with the United States following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan. The visit, the highest by a U.S. official in 25 years, was seen by Beijing as a serious provocation. In response, China canceled several military-to-military engagements, including those between theater-level commanders. These cancellations marked a significant deterioration in military communications, raising concerns over potential misunderstandings or miscalculations leading to conflict.

The dialogue between Sullivan and Gen. Zhang, part of a three-day visit to China, is the latest in a series of cautious efforts to restore communication channels between the two countries. President Joe Biden had previously persuaded Chinese President Xi Jinping to resume contact during their meeting at the APEC summit in November 2023. This led to the resumption of U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks in December, after a break of more than two years.

Since then, both sides have worked towards reinstating regular military communications, recognizing the importance of transparency and direct dialogue in reducing the risk of conflict. Sullivan and Zhang acknowledged this progress and expressed plans for a future telephone call between theater commanders, indicating a positive, albeit tentative, step forward in military relations.

Despite these advances, Taiwan remains a highly sensitive issue that could easily derail any progress. During the meeting, Gen. Zhang reiterated China’s firm stance, emphasizing that Taiwan independence is “incompatible with peace” and represents an “insurmountable red line” in U.S.-China relations. He demanded that the U.S. cease what Beijing views as military collusion with Taiwan, halt arms sales to the island, and stop spreading narratives that China deems false.

Sullivan, for his part, underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, advocating for responsible management of U.S.-China relations to avoid escalation. “It is rare that we have the opportunity to have this kind of exchange,” Sullivan said, highlighting the significance of the discussions in preventing potential conflicts.

The South China Sea, another flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, has also seen rising tensions, particularly involving the Philippines, a key U.S. ally in the region. During Sullivan’s visit, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi warned the U.S. against supporting the Philippines in its territorial disputes with China. Wang asserted that bilateral treaties should not be used as an excuse to undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The U.S., however, has signaled its willingness to support its allies in the region. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated that the U.S. military is open to consulting about escorting Philippine ships in the disputed waters, a move that could further escalate tensions with China. This stance, expressed during an international military conference in Manila, reflects the broader U.S. strategy of supporting its allies and maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.

As tensions between Manila and Beijing over disputed reefs and waters in the South China Sea have escalated in recent days, the U.S. has made clear its support for the Philippines. Washington’s allies Japan and the Philippines have blamed China for raising regional tensions, with Tokyo accusing Beijing of violating its airspace and Manila calling it the “biggest disrupter” of peace in Southeast Asia.

Adm. Paparo’s remarks, made in response to a question during a news conference in Manila alongside Philippine Armed Forces chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., provided a glimpse into the mindset of one of the highest American military commanders outside the U.S. mainland. His comments suggested a potential U.S. operation that would risk putting U.S. Navy ships in direct confrontation with those of China.

As Sullivan’s visit concluded, both sides were keenly aware of the broader implications for U.S.-China relations, particularly with the upcoming U.S. presidential transition in January. The meeting between Sullivan and Gen. Zhang came just a day after the White House announced plans for a phone call between Presidents Biden and Xi in the coming weeks, signaling continued efforts to stabilize relations despite ongoing disagreements.

In his remarks, Wang Yi reiterated China’s stance on Taiwan, stating that the U.S. should adhere to the “one-China” principle and respect the three joint communiques that have historically underpinned U.S.-China relations. He emphasized that China is committed to safeguarding its territorial integrity and achieving peaceful reunification, while also warning the U.S. against supporting Taiwan independence.

As both nations navigate these complex issues, the path forward remains fraught with challenges. The recent agreements on military communications are a positive sign, but they are fragile and could easily be undone by new provocations or misunderstandings. With Taiwan and the South China Sea remaining as major flashpoints, the risk of escalation continues to loom large.

In this delicate dance, the U.S. and China must carefully manage their strategic interests and ideological differences, balancing firmness with diplomacy to avoid conflict. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these tentative steps towards dialogue will lead to a more stable and constructive U.S.-China relationship or whether they will falter in the face of entrenched disagreements and rising tensions.