With the US presidential elections just few days away, discussions regarding the potential impact of the outcomes on India are timely. Recently, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, emphasized the importance of strengthening the “great partnership” that exists between the two nations. In the case of Donald Trump winning the mandate, what lies ahead for India remains to be seen.
History of Modi-Trump Friendship
In the past, Modi and Trump’s friendship has been a highlight of the India–USA relationship. In 2019, Prime Minister Modi visited Texas to attend the ‘Howdy Modi’ rally, which was also marked by the presence of then-US President Donald Trump. Their friendship projected a collaborative approach towards bilateral cooperation and harmony.
This was reciprocated in 2020 when PM Modi hosted Trump at the world’s largest cricket stadium in Ahmedabad during the high-profile ‘Namaste Trump’ event. Both leaders’ strong nationalistic ideologies have contributed to their popularity and mutual admiration.
Economic Impact
It remains to be seen how economic ties between the two nations will evolve, especially in light of recent economic sanctions on India by the US. Donald Trump’s economic nationalism, conveyed through his “America First” vision, will influence India’s economic and trade landscape. Trump has, on several occasions, criticized India’s tariff policies and trade barriers.
Significantly, the Republican candidate’s focus on reducing dependency on China by encouraging US companies to shift their supply chains elsewhere could be potentially beneficial to India’s economic interests. By capitalizing on this shift in global supply chains, the Indian economy could attract investments from American companies across various sectors.
Impact on Defense Sector
In defense cooperation, the continued strength of the QUAD mechanism can be anticipated. This would not only strengthen the relations between the member nations—the US, India, Japan, and Australia—but also address China’s presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
During his previous term, Trump signed several agreements to deepen defense and security cooperation by collaborating on the co-development and production of advanced military systems. Trump’s focus on bolstering military and strategic partnerships could open avenues for joint initiatives in technology, defense, and infrastructure.
Geopolitical Impact
On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump’s policies in South Asia could impact the regional balance and have implications for India’s regional interests. Speaking on the occasion of Diwali, Trump condemned the attacks on minority Hindus in Bangladesh. This statement comes at a crucial time, considering the current sensitive geopolitical situation in the region.
A tougher stance on terrorism would support India’s ongoing efforts to address Pakistan in this context. In 2019, Trump met then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in a bilateral meeting. Although Trump has demonstrated a willingness to engage with Pakistan, he has emphasized the need for accountability in counter-terrorism efforts, which could create a more balanced approach. However, his “Peace through Strength” philosophy might lead the US to adopt a stricter stance on terrorism and extremism, aligning closely with India’s security objectives.
