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President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House by his America First Policy has sent ripples across the West Asia. Trump’s first term in office was marked by his distinct approach to the region, from recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital to imposing stringent sanctions on Iran. With shifting alliances, emerging conflicts, and evolving foreign policy goals, Trump’s upcoming presidency holds significant potential to shape the West Asian landscape once again.
Trump’s renewed focus is expected to heighten tensions with Iran, with a probable return to the “maximum pressure” campaign, impacting West Asian stability and potentially emboldening Israel’s stance. Key regional actors are preparing for how a new Trump administration may influence their agendas, alliances, and ambitions. The evolving multipolar environment in West Asia underscores complex dynamics between traditional U.S. alliances and emerging global partnerships, setting the stage for significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
Israel and Palestine: A Tough Balancing Act
Trump’s first term heavily favored Israel, notably through historic steps like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and endorsing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Despite this strong support, Trump’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had its ups and downs, especially following Netanyahu’s quick endorsement of Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, which Trump saw as a betrayal. However, Netanyahu and his allies view Trump’s return as an opportunity to reinforce Israel’s security and regional integration.
One pressing issue will be the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Analysts suggest that Trump, who emphasized ending protracted conflicts, may urge Netanyahu to find quick resolutions to these conflicts to avoid them becoming front-page issues during his administration. Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas predicts that Trump might pressure Israel to seek quick victories and wrap up these wars before his inauguration. Yet, Trump’s disinterest in the Palestinian issue may complicate any long-term peace strategies, leaving Palestinians without much hope for meaningful change.
Some fear that Trump’s return could greenlight more aggressive Israeli policies in the West Bank, potentially allowing for annexation that could end the possibility of a two-state solution. Trump’s previous administration largely sidelined Palestinian statehood, prioritizing regional normalization agreements, such as the Abraham Accords, over Palestinian interests. If Trump attempts to expand the accords, it may further entrench Israel’s position while sidelining Palestinian aspirations.
One of the major Powers in West Asia : Iran
Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign during his first term isolated Iran economically, with sweeping sanctions that damaged the nation’s economy and limited its regional influence. However, since Trump left office, Iran has taken strides in enhancing its nuclear capabilities and supporting regional militias, which have increased tensions with Israel. Trump’s return could bring back the pressure campaign, threatening Iran’s tentative economic recovery and regional influence.
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Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, faces domestic unrest and economic strain, creating a fragile situation that could be exacerbated by renewed US pressure. Experts suggest that Trump’s unpredictable approach might embolden Israel to act against Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially if Trump signals a green light. In a scenario where Trump encourages Netanyahu to “finish the job” before his official return, the region could see escalations even before Trump’s inauguration.
Meanwhile, Trump may consider his desire to reach a “grand deal” with Iran. Some speculate that Trump could attempt to engage with Iran diplomatically to achieve what he views as a win in negotiations. However, his administration’s stance may lean more toward containment than diplomacy, especially if Trump’s advisors support aggressive strategies over negotiation. As Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group notes, the likelihood of a true negotiation may be slim, with Trump more likely to push for regime changes through both diplomatic and economic means.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulfs in West Asia: A Test of Old Alliances
Trump’s first term saw unprecedented support for Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Gulf, highlighted by his decision to make Riyadh his first foreign visit as president. His relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman solidified despite global backlash over incidents like the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. While Trump’s support emboldened Saudi policies, the Gulf states have since recalibrated their foreign policies, seeking reduced military intervention and rapprochement with former adversaries like Iran.
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With a more multipolar world and a rise in Saudi-China relations, Gulf states may find themselves navigating complex diplomacy under a second Trump administration. Trump may apply pressure on Saudi Arabia and the UAE to distance themselves from China, a stance that could strain their expanding ties with Beijing, particularly in technology and infrastructure. Trump’s trade policies could also impact Gulf economies if he reignites tariffs and trade wars with China, potentially harming Gulf oil exports.
Saudi Arabia has shown cautious support for Israel under the Abraham Accords, yet normalization with Israel remains contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, a non-negotiable for the Saudis. Trump’s potential reluctance to address Palestinian statehood could pose a challenge for the kingdom.
Although Gulf leaders have maintained relationships with Trump, they may find it challenging to align their interests with his priorities if he takes a hard stance on China or disregards the Palestinian issue.
Qatar and the Balancing Act of Influence
Qatar, which shares a complex relationship with the US and regional players, may face challenges under a new Trump administration due to its close ties with Hamas, which has been instrumental in mediating discussions on Gaza.
Trump’s unwavering support for Israel may put additional pressure on Qatar to distance itself from Hamas, especially if Trump’s advisors view Qatar’s relationship with Hamas as a liability. Despite Qatar’s significance as a mediator, Trump’s hardline approach may complicate its role.
A Second Act for Trump in the West Asia
Trump’s approach to the West Asia will likely be shaped by the region’s evolving dynamics, his prior policies, and his complex relationships with key players. His strategy may prioritize swift resolutions to conflicts that could dominate headlines, aligning with his preference for immediate victories rather than long-term peace processes. For Israel, Iran, and the Gulf states, Trump’s return could mean intensified geopolitical competition and recalibrated alliances.
As Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House looms, the U.S. strategy in West Asia is poised for recalibration. Trump’s previous tenure demonstrated a willingness to disrupt traditional diplomatic approaches, with his focus likely to intensify pressure on Iran and prioritize security alliances that sidestep long standing regional conflicts, particularly concerning Palestinian statehood.
Gulf nations, now more economically and strategically aligned with both China and Russia, face a delicate balancing act in managing their historic ties to the U.S. alongside their newer partnerships. The evolving dynamics introduced by the Abraham Accords may continue, though the lack of resolution on Palestinian issues could limit further normalization efforts in the West Asian region. Ultimately, Trump’s approach signals a return to a more unilateral U.S. stance in West Asia, with potential for heightened regional tension as actors navigate the intersecting influences of Washington, Beijing, and Moscow
