In a stark departure from his typically composed demeanor, outgoing Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy appeared dejected on the evening of June 4. The ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) suffered a monumental loss to the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which, in alliance with the Jana Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), secured a whopping 164 seats. In contrast, YSRCP managed to secure only 11 seats, marking the biggest defeat in the state’s history.
Media Address: Surprise and Betrayal
In a press conference held on June 4, Jagan emphasized his welfare programs and questioned the loyalty of the beneficiaries, expressing that he felt betrayed. Despite the shocking results, he highlighted that the YSRCP retained around 40% of the vote share and vowed to continue serving the people.
Key Leaders Fall
Major YSRCP figures, including Kodali Nani, Vallabhaneni Vamsi, and cabinet ministers like RK Roja, Gudivada Amarnath, and Botsa Satyanarayana, lost their seats. Although welfare schemes such as Amma Vodi, YSR Aasara, YSR Cheyutha, YSR Matsyakara Bharosa, and Aarogya Shri were popular among women voters, anti-incumbency sentiments were strong, drastically reducing the party’s presence in the Assembly.
The Capital Controversy
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The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance’s development-focused campaign overshadowed Jagan’s welfare initiatives. In regions like NTR and Guntur districts, the alliance’s promise to establish Amaravati as the capital resonated with voters. Initially, Jagan supported Amaravati as the capital but later proposed a three-capital plan, designating Amaravati as the legislative capital, Visakhapatnam as the executive capital, and Kurnool as the judicial capital. This reversal, along with Visakhapatnam being a TDP stronghold, worked against Jagan.
Unemployment Crisis
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Unemployment was a significant issue in the 2024 elections, as it was in 2019. Jagan’s promise to fill 7,000 teacher positions and 26,000 police department jobs through a ‘mega DSC’ (District Selection Committee) remained unfulfilled. Consequently, many youths resorted to menial jobs. Mismanagement of ports in Kakinada, Nellore, and Visakhapatnam exacerbated unemployment in the coastal regions. The Andhra Pradesh Nirudyoga Porata Samithi (APNPS) criticized the government for failing to secure and implement job opportunities.
Chandrababu Naidu’s Arrest and Pawan Kalyan’s Influence
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The arrest of TDP leader N Chandrababu Naidu in September 2023 was a turning point. The AP Crime Investigation Department (CID) and YSRCP accused Naidu of a multi-crore skill development scam, sparking sympathy for him. Following the arrest, Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan allied with Naidu, leveraging his appeal among young voters and the Kapu community. Jagan’s remark that Kapu reservations wouldn’t be implemented fueled dissatisfaction among the community, boosting support for the alliance in coastal districts.
Promises and Manifesto: Winning Over Voters
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The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance’s joint election manifesto included promises like free bus travel for women, three free gas cylinders annually, creation of 20 lakh jobs in five years, and a monthly unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000. These promises resonated with the electorate, contrasting sharply with the unmet promises of the YSRCP.
Liquor Policy Backfires
YSRCP’s unfulfilled prohibition promise and the sale of poor-quality local liquor at high prices became major issues. BJP MLA from Visakhapatnam (North), Penmetsa Vishnu Kumar Raju, highlighted that substandard liquor was sold at inflated prices, causing health issues among consumers. The alliance pledged to provide good quality alcohol at reduced prices, addressing a significant voter concern.
Economic Missteps
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While Jagan’s government focused on direct benefit transfers, there was a public demand for infrastructure- and investment-led development, which was neglected. The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance accused YSRCP of plunging Andhra Pradesh into severe debt. The state’s inflation rate surpassed the national average, adding to public dissatisfaction.
Conclusion: Strategic Missteps
Political analysts attribute Jagan’s downfall to neglecting his party and relying heavily on his image, which weakened YSRCP’s organizational strength. His focus on welfare schemes was overshadowed by pressing issues like unemployment and economic development. Failure to deliver on key promises, such as job creation and prohibition, eroded public trust. Strategic missteps regarding the capital issue and liquor policy further alienated voters.
The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance capitalized on these weaknesses with a cohesive strategy addressing public grievances and offering tangible solutions. The arrest of Chandrababu Naidu and the alliance with Pawan Kalyan created a unified opposition that effectively mobilized support. Their promises of development and job creation resonated well with the electorate.
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Jagan’s inability to adapt, coupled with unmet promises, paved the way for the alliance’s historic victory, highlighting the importance of a strong party structure and fulfillment of electoral commitments.
