The Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash near Aqtau, Kazakhstan, on 25 December that resulted in significant casualties, killing around 38 people among the 67 onboard, holds a new conspiracy with initial reports suggesting it may have been accidentally struck by a Russian surface-to-air anti-aircraft missile. Military personnel noted damage consistent with missile shrapnel on the aircraft. As investigations accelerated, various theories emerged, the most shocking being the Russian air defenses’ mistakenly hitting the aircraft, thinking it was a Ukrainian drone. The implications of these findings could rewind the tragic incident of Malaysian Airlines MH-17 that was shot down by the Russian-backed forces with a Buk-9M38 surface-to-air anti-aircraft missile while flying over eastern Ukraine on 17 July 2014.
The Crash: Initial reports.
The Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed while traveling from Baku to Grozny, an offshoot region in Russia’s Chechnya, killing 38 of the 67 on board. Survivors reported that they heard a loud explosion outside the aircraft, suggesting possible damage from an anti-aircraft fire. The initial probe, however, holds that a large flock of birds may be the reason behind the crash that came in contact with the airplane.
As per the reports, after being denied landing in Grozny due to fog, the plane was diverted for an emergency landing in Aqtau, Kazakhstan. As per a few passengers, there was a loud bang before the aircraft’s erratic behavior, contributing to the belief of a critical failure. The aircraft experienced significant GPS jamming before the crash and struggled with altitude maintenance for about an hour.
The main reason for this particular “erratic behavior” is what the authorities are after.
The Russian Missile: –
Military experts cited visible shrapnel damage on the wreckage, indicating that a missile may have struck the plane.
Some reports speculated that Russian forces may have mistaken the commercial plane for an enemy drone, as the region in which the plane had been flying is a hotbed region of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the firing of missiles at Ukrainian drones is a common practice, as per the reports.
A video from inside the aircraft showed an onboard passenger with injuries consistent with shrapnel wounds, further supporting claims of an external attack.
Russian Response: –
The Russians so far have denied all of the allegations of their involvement in the crash. Russian aviation authorities denied the plane permission to land at any of the nearby airports, compelling the pilots to navigate over the turbulent Caspian Sea in an attempt to reach the western Kazakh city. Reports say the missile was “accidentally fired,” but Russia has been claiming the opposite. Russia has also warned countries to not make “a wrong hypothesis, as there is no confirmation of this involvement, and the investigation is yet to be completed.
Within hours, photos and videos of the plane emerged, revealing deep holes and numerous pockmarks on its tail.
Experts suggest the damage resembles that caused by a strike from the Pantsir-S1, a Soviet-era defense system used by Chechnya to counter Ukrainian drone attacks. At the time, Chechen air defense forces were responding to an assault by Ukrainian drones, claiming to have successfully shot down “all of them.”
Despite the Kremlin’s denial of shooting the aircraft down, the observations of missile activity in the area coincide with the incident, raising concerns over Russian air defense operations.
Many are asking Russia to accept its mistake and to take some accountability as well as responsibility for the death of the passengers.
Further investigation into the crash will also evaluate the data from the aircraft’s black box to ascertain the actual causes behind the tragedy.
