In December 2024, the Chinese government approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River. Aimed to generate electricity and bolster China’s sustainable energy capacity. Proposed to build on the Brahmaputra (known as Yarlung Tsangpo in China), near the very disputed border with India. The speculated reason for building the largest hydropower dam is to enhance energy security and control water resources, impacting downstream flow to India and Bangladesh. This could alter the river’s flow, affecting water availability, agriculture, and ecosystems in India’s Northeast states. Will this bold move threaten India’s Northeast and Bangladesh’s water availability?
Chinese Stands:
This project is part of China’s 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) and long-term objectives through 20235. With an expected power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, surpassing their own Three Gorges Dam, which is the largest dam in the world. The construction poses environmental risks, including seismic instability and the biodiversity importance of the region.
According to Chinese officials, this aid to China’s carbon neutrality goals will stimulate various industries and create jobs in Tibet, while the expected cost is about 1 trillion yuan, or the equivalent of 127 billion US dollars. Compared to the Three Gorges Dam, which was 254.2 billion yuan, the cost is four times higher, and the Chinese are facing economic slowdown challenges as mentioned by President Xi Jinping in his 2025 New Year address, which would be challenging to build in the short run.
Indian Experts Opinion:
Many experts, including Brahma Chellaney, a geo-strategic expert; Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical strategist; and Teerath Singh Mehra, commissioner in India’s Ministry of Water Resources, pointed out that the Brahmaputra River is a lifeline for Northeast Indian farmers for agriculture, fisheries, and livelihoods in the region. Further, it will also affect the Bengali farming community in Bangladesh, while experts believe that China might weaponize water. The Assam Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, warned that China’s proposed dam on the Brahmaputra would make the river’s ecosystem completely “fragile and dry.” He expressed concerns regarding the river becoming heavily reliant on rainfall from Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh, which could dry up entirely if rainfall is insufficient, affecting Assam’s farmers.
Many experts believe China would overflood the water in the rainy season and dry it during the summer season, similarly to what they did in Southeast Asia in the past. In the Mekong River, China built almost 11 dams affecting water flow, agriculture, fisheries, and regional relations. The dams altered the natural flow of the Mekong River, leading to reduced water levels during the dry seasons. This change has diminished sediment transport, crucial for maintaining fertile floodplains and supporting biodiversity, while the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam, a vital rice-producing region, faces challenges due to a reduction in sediment deposition, leading to soil degradation.
The fisheries have suffered from challenges due to changes in water quality and fish migration patterns, threatening food security and livelihoods. Further affecting millions who depend on fresh water from the Mekong River. The dams have raised concerns among Southeast Asian nations about China’s control over the Mekong’s water resource, and in 2019, the water levels in the Mekong River fell to their lowest in over a century, even during the monsoon seasons. Further countries, including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, experienced water shortages and asked for transparency in the river management. A statement from Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized,
“We have repeatedly called on China to provide transparency in its management of the river’s resources.”
While Chinese Foreign Spokesperson Mao Ning responded:
“The project aims to speed up developing clean energy and respond to climate change and extreme hydrological disasters. China’s hydropower development in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is not intended to negatively affect downstream regions. China’s hydropower development in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is carried out in a responsible manner. We remain committed to maintaining communication and coordination with India through existing channels to address any concerns related to transboundary water resources.”
In conclusion, this bold project won’t only affect India but also Bangladesh, where its Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged China to be transparent about the impact of its upstream projects on water flow and to ensure that the water supply to downstream countries like Bangladesh remains stable. Further, it advocated for a comprehensive agreement with upstream countries like China and India to safeguard its water resources. While the environmental impact would not stop China from building dams, due to economic slowdowns, the project might be delayed. This would be a great opportunity for India and Bangladesh to build international pressure on China to abandon the project.
