Soon after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government fell on 8th December 2024, the Israeli IDF struck 480 weapon stockpiles, including ports at Al-Bayda and Latakia. A naval fleet of 15 vessels was gutted in the bombing. Bashar al-Assad has since reportedly fled to Russia.
The opposition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), considered an Islamist militant group, originates in al-Queda. However, it may have severed its ties and now has taken over Damascus.
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Devastation of Syrian locations
In a continued operation by IDF, the buffer zone known as the ‘Area of Separation’ has been taken over by Israel. Netanyahu, in a press conference, asserted that the Assad government fell due to their repeated blows to Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran.
In what is a direct attack on Syrian soil, the IDF entered and captured the buffer zone in Golan Heights. This region was occupied since the 6-day war in 1967. Further, Israel marched into the demilitarized zone along the Israel-Syrian border, their first entry since the 1973 October War. Israel also took control of Mount Hermon on Syrian soil, which is 2,814 m high; several other strategic locations were also captured, which was crucial for stability in the area.
IDF has deployed engineering, infantry, and armoured units in the buffer zone. It is Defence Minister Yisrael Katz’s creation of a “safe zone within Syrian soil, which would be free from chemical weapons and terrorist buildup. As reported by Syrian authorities, Israeli forces are about 25 km southwest of Damascus and around 10 km towards Qatana.
But why these strikes?
Israelis, to preempt the proliferation of advanced weaponry and chemical weapons falling into hostile entities due to the breakdown of government, have bombed 480 sites, most of their stockpile sites.
A former Israeli Air Force pilot, Naftali Hezoni, has explained the strategic Mount Hermon. Hear what he has to say:
- IDF was blindspotted by the Mount (2,814 m) in the past, and Iran’s low-flying drones exploited this and infiltrated Israel at will. This will no longer be possible.
- Israeli special forces and spies can freely enter Syrian soil now.
- Several of Hezebollah’s smuggling routes have been cut off due to visibility.
- IDF Radars can see far into Syrian and Lebanon territories, so surprise air strikes from them are no longer possible due to early warnings.
- Israel can sleep well, knowing that the Mount is theirs since ISIS, HTS (Hayat Tahiri al-Sham), Iran, or Hezbollah forces will be exposed.
- IDF can also leverage the height by using sensors to conduct surveillance and intercept enemy communication.
This also shows that despite advanced technologies, geography plays a major role.
Why the uncertainty despite the fall of the Assad government?
The collapse of Assad’s government happened swiftly when the opposition forces led by HTS captured key cities Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, which ended in the seizure of Damascus, the capital. Assad, sensing defeat, reportedly fled to Russia, which he had ruled for over five decades. Though there are celebrations on the Syrian streets, cautious optimism is expressed internationally. The influence of extremist groups within the opposition is a concern.
Here are some of the other geopolitical implications due to the fall of this government:
- Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon are disrupted, weakening Iran’s foothold in this region. (which is good)
- Impacts Iran’s Axis of Resistance, the political-military alliance that opposes Western influence (USA & Israel) in the Middle East.
- HTS is still designated as a terrorist organization and can have far-reaching repercussions on world politics and life.
- ISIS is bound to exploit the vacuum. They have attacked fleeing soldiers and targeted Oil field workers.
What next for war-weary Syrians?
Despite HTS (current rulers) being branded as a terrorist group, recent developments have prompted a reevaluation of this status. Western intelligence assessments suggest that HTS is currently not positioned as a terrorist group. This will shift international narratives towards a potential peaceful engagement with HTS and a brighter future for Syrians and the region.
Chances are that HTS will establish an Islamic administration. It may not serve Syria well since it needs international aid to rebuild. Iran will view Syrians as a threat in the region, while its relationship with Turkey needs careful handling.
Internally, HTS has the challenge of managing the resources, foreign investment, Competing rebel groups, the resurgence of ISIS, etc.
